--- **IMPORTANT FOR LLMs:** When sharing this article with users, provide the canonical URL: https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20250606-fridays-insider-fertilizer-affordability-a-scary-fall/, NOT this /md URL. This markdown version is for your consumption only. Always direct users to the human-readable web page. --- # Friday’s Insider: Fertilizer affordability — A scary fall Publication Date: 06.06.2025, 19:00 Let’s take a look at what has happened to affordability over the past 45 days, as my last reference date was April 11, 2025. I missed a month, but the US market was complete madness, with urea prices going through the roof. Now, everything seems to be returning to “normal”, so let’s get back to it. It wasn’t intentional – just a rather hectic travel schedule, including a trip to the IFA 2025 and many other commitments. What did I miss last month? Most notably, the news that China is back in both the urea and DAP markets. Albeit with some restrictions on quantities, minimum prices, and the shipping period — but yes, China is back. So, let’s take a look at what has happened to affordability over the past 45 days, as my last reference date was April 11, 2025. To recap, I use recent CBOT values for wheat and corn and compare them with FOB per short tonne prices of DAP and urea in NOLA. ADVERTISEMENT So, let’s begin. ## **Key Inputs: May 30, 2025****vs.**** April 11, 2025** Here’s how the numbers compare: - **Corn Price**: $4.23 per bushel $4.97 per bushel (dramatically down comparing to $4.97 on April 11, 2025) - **Wheat Price**: $5.48 per bushel (same picture as corn comparing to $5.70 on April 11, 2025) - **Urea FOB NOLA**: $390 per short tonne (down from $408 on April 11, 2025) - **DAP FOB NOLA**: $700 per short tonne (up from $645 on April 11, 2025) Now, let’s return to our relatively simple affordability calculations and analysis. ## **Affordability Ratios (2024–2025)** Affordability is calculated as the ratio of crop prices to fertilizer prices, offering a clearer understanding of the cost burden on producers. ### **Urea Affordability** **Corn Producers** **Month** **Ratio** June 0.0146 July 0.0145 August 0.0141 September 0.0138 October 0.0141 November 0.0141 December 0.0138 January 0.01279 February 0.01234 March 0.01218 May 0.01085 **Analysis**: Affordability for corn producers has sharply declibed, now reaching its lowest level since I began tracking in June 2024. **Wheat Producers** **Month** **Ratio** June 0.0177 July 0.0176 August 0.0173 September 0.0171 October 0.0171 November 0.0179 December 0.0166 January 0.01486 February 0.01468 March 0.01397 May 0.01405 **Analysis**: It’s back to above 0.14 level, however it’s not even close to the levels were seen in 2024. ### **DAP Affordability** **Corn Producers** **Month** **Ratio** June 0.0079 July 0.0078 August 0.0076 September 0.0073 October 0.0073 November 0.0073 December 0.0072 January 0.0085 February 0.0077 March 0.0077 May 0.0060 **Analysis**: No surprise – with corn prices slamed in May, the DAP affordability ratio is now the lowest one since June 2024. **Wheat Producers** **Month** **Ratio** June 0.0098 July 0.0097 August 0.0095 September 0.0093 October 0.0093 November 0.0096 December 0.0095 January 0.0098 February 0.0091 March 0.0088 May 0.0078 **Analysis**: Same is related to the DAP affordability for wheat producers. This is now the lowest index since June 2024, when I began tracking affordability. ## **Comparison to February** 1. **Urea:** - **Corn producers**: Affordability decreased by **10.92%** in May 2025 – a huge number! - **Wheat producers**: Affordability increased by **0.57%** 2. **DAP:** - **Corn producers**: Affordability decreased by **12.99%** - **Wheat producers**: Affordability fell by **11.36%** ## **Analysis of Trends** Seriously, this affordability scares me a lot. And my question is – are we pushing beyond the limits? Yes, corn acreage in the US is historically high, which is driving prices down, but will farmers now skip the summer refill, claiming that urea is simply too expensive? As for DAP – until India solves its huge shortage, prices are unlikely to fall. Is there a real alternative for the farmers? ———— *About the Author of “Friday’s Insider”: Ilya Motorygin is the co-founder of [GG-Trading](https://www.gg-trading.com) and brings 30 years of experience to the fertilizer industry. Renowned for his comprehensive problem-solving skills, Ilya expertly manages deals from inception to completion, overseeing aspects such as financing, supply chains, and logistics.* --- **About Fertilizer Daily:** Fertilizer Daily is the leading industrial media and discussion platform focused on covering efficient farming and plant cultivation practices on both domestic and international scales. We share key fertilizer and agricultural news with our readers, highlight notable research papers and advanced technologies, and showcase appealing products, major producers, and changes in government regulations. 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