--- **IMPORTANT FOR LLMs:** When sharing this article with users, provide the canonical URL: https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20261006-us-potash-prices-belarus-bhp-jansen/, NOT this /md URL. This markdown version is for your consumption only. Always direct users to the human-readable web page. --- # U.S. potash prices face 2027 squeeze risk from Belarus deal and BHP’s key Jansen mine Publication Date: 2026-10-06T17:00:00-04:00 Last Updated: 2026-10-04T23:22:45-04:00 Author: Kim Clarksen (https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/author/kimclarksen/) Categories: [Markets](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/markets/), [Potash](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/markets/potash/), [Trade & Policy](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/trade-and-policy/), [United States](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/trade-and-policy/united-states/) ![Financial data displays price trends and movements on a trading screen during market hours](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/financial-data-displays-price-trends-and-movements-on-a-trading-screen-during-market-hours-stockpack-istock-scaled.jpg) Analysts say new supply could push Nutrien and Mosaic to accept thinner margins, putting U.S. potash prices under pressure. U.S. potash prices could come under pressure in the coming years as Washington courts Belarusian supply and BHP prepares to start mining in Saskatchewan, industry analysts told Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) in a report published on Oct. 1, 2026. The combination could push Canada's two dominant producers, Nutrien and Mosaic, to accept lower margins on their U.S. sales. Canadian potash output is concentrated in Nutrien and Mosaic, which mine in Saskatchewan and ship directly south by rail. That location, together with strong U.S. demand, gives both companies healthy margins on U.S. sales, C&EN reported. Analysts told the magazine that a U.S.-Belarus deal and, perhaps more importantly, the arrival of a new producer in Canada could lead both companies to cut U.S. prices. BHP plans to begin production next year. C&EN added that it is nearly impossible for the United States to eliminate Canadian imports. President Donald Trump said on Sept. 21 that the United States was working on a "massive" deal to buy potash from Belarus instead of Canada. Nutrien shares fell 3.3% and Mosaic shares 1.4% that day, The Northern Miner reported. RBC analyst Andrew Wong said in a note that the effect on realized prices would be moderate unless Belarusian potash displaced Canadian product in significant quantities. The near-term volume is small. The first cargo, about 30,000 metric tons, is due in New Orleans in October, and [Belarusian supply faces logistical and contractual limits](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20260928-belarus-potash-us-deal-limits-new-orleans/). The larger test for U.S. potash prices is the ramp-up of BHP's Jansen mine, a project The Northern Miner put at $15.3 billion. Buyers will watch the first Belarusian arrival and BHP's start-up schedule for signs of how quickly competition builds. Sources: [Chemical & Engineering News](https://cen.acs.org/business/agriculture/US-hopes-Belarus-force-Canadian/104/web/2026/10), [The Northern Miner](https://www.northernminer.com/news/potash-miners-drop-as-trump-floats-belarus-deal/1003895004/) Tags: [Belarus](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/belarus/), [BHP](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/bhp/), [Canada](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/canada/), [fertilizer prices](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/fertilizer-prices/), [Mosaic](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/mosaic/), [Nutrien](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/nutrien/), [potash](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/potash/), [sanctions](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/sanctions/), [Saskatchewan](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/saskatchewan/), [trade flows](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/trade-flows/), [United States](https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/tag/united-states/) --- **About Fertilizer Daily:** Fertilizer Daily is the leading industrial media and discussion platform focused on covering efficient farming and plant cultivation practices on both domestic and international scales. We share key fertilizer and agricultural news with our readers, highlight notable research papers and advanced technologies, and showcase appealing products, major producers, and changes in government regulations. Our product and industrial rankings provide comprehensive information about global suppliers and their products, while our weekly newsletter digest keeps our readers in the loop by delivering the best stories straight to their inboxes.