Friday’s Insider: Discussion on DAP and India

In India, the government provides subsidies for the import of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) fertilizer to make it affordable for farmers. The government sets a fixed subsidy amount per tonne, which helps reduce the market price for farmers. Importers of DAP fertilizers receive these subsidies, ensuring that they can sell the fertilizer at lower rates domestically. This support aims to boost agricultural productivity by making essential fertilizers more accessible to farmers.

Recently, the Indian government has refused to increase its subsidies for phosphate fertilizers. What does this mean? Importers are forced to continue losing money. With the current subsidies, the import breakeven value is no more than $505 per metric tonne CFR.

What is the government trying to achieve? Well, if I am correct, it’s a move to intimidate phosphate producers, potentially resulting in the loss of the world’s largest P2O5 consumer.

But is it the right moment? Absolutely not! Suppliers have successfully placed tonnes at least 60 days ahead and at levels well above the latest Indian business. This is evident from the sales reported by producers, traders, and receivers in other countries.

Indian offers have moved up from $550 per metric tonne CFR to $600-610 per metric tonne CFR in just a month, but even at $610 per metric tonne, the offered quantities are very limited.

And don’t forget, it’s not only importers who don’t want to lose money. Local farmers also face shortages of DAP. According to the official statistics, India’s DAP imports in June reached 273,000 metric tonnes, down 74% from 1 million metric tonnes in June 2023. Calendar Q2 DAP imports were down 48%, at 1.1 million metric tonnes from 2.1 million metric tonnes. In the first half of 2024, DAP imports reached only 1.6 million metric tonnes compared to 3.4 million metric tonnes in the same period of 2023.

This is a tough call for the recently formed government.

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About the Author of “Friday’s Insider”: Ilya Motorygin is the co-founder of GG-Trading and brings 30 years of experience to the fertilizer industry. Renowned for his comprehensive problem-solving skills, Ilya expertly manages deals from inception to completion, overseeing aspects such as financing, supply chains, and logistics.