China’s $9 billion desertification effort achieved its milestone and faces criticism

In late 2024, Chinese authorities declared victory over the desert: the spread of sand has been halted, now protected from dust storms by a multi-kilometer wall of trees. Chinese officials completed a monumental project in November 2024—planting millions of trees to build the “Great Green Wall” aimed at halting the advance of the desert.

According to Forbes, while tens of international publications reported the desert as conclusively “shut off,” the truth is that only a portion of the work has been completed. The final victory over the desert is expected by 2050, when forested areas in China are anticipated to triple from 5% to 15% of the country’s land area. Instead of a continuous forest barrier, the plan will result in a patchwork of woodland strips, sparse forests, and shrubs along the Chinese border. Critics doubt the efficacy of the man-made forest, arguing that it should not have been planted at all.

Historically, sand storms were considered a curse by the Chinese, causing significant loss of life and economic damage. They were worsened by land mismanagement, such as excessive grazing and deforestation. However, scientific evidence has shown that these storms have become more frequent due to improper land management.

The “green wall” initiative has been controversial. It was noted that the projects were often implemented in areas inhabited by ethnic minorities, where the state could exert more control. Despite significant investments, the actual impact of these forests in stopping desertification remains questionable.

The initiatives have evolved over time. Initially, durable plants like saxaul, which are suited to arid conditions, were planted. However, the vast length of the “wall” required a diversity of species, leading to the inclusion of trees like poplars and pines. Experts argue that such efforts might not be ecologically or economically sustainable.

The project has also led to innovative approaches, such as using drones to combat desertification and developing water injection planting techniques. Yet, the commercial viability of these technologies remains uncertain, as natural conditions vary significantly across desert regions globally.

In stark contrast to the forestation efforts, the area of vineyards has dramatically increased, replacing forests in regions like Dunhuang and Gansu Province. This shift has raised concerns about the consistency of China’s environmental policies at the national and local levels.

Despite decades of experimentation, the scientific community remains divided on the appropriateness of such large-scale environmental projects. While some advocate for the potential benefits of planting on arid lands, others caution that increasing tree density could exacerbate water scarcity and increase erosion, questioning the long-term sustainability of such initiatives.