FAO warns climate change threatens half of prime growing areas for key crops by 2100

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has introduced a critical upgrade to its geospatial analysis tool, the Adaptation, Biodiversity and Carbon Mapping Tool (ABC-Map), with new data indicating that key global crops could lose up to half of their optimal growing areas by the end of the century. The findings, based on a new indicator incorporated into the platform, highlight mounting climate-related risks for staples such as wheat, coffee, beans, cassava, and plantain.

The new feature enables users to assess future crop suitability under different climate emission scenarios through 2100, expanding beyond the tool’s original focus on historical climate patterns. FAO says the update offers a sharper lens for agricultural planning as climate variability and extreme weather events intensify. “Our ABC-Map tool can now better assist with critical adaptation decisions,” said Martial Bernoux, Senior Natural Resources Officer at FAO. The underlying data draws on a study by French firm Finres, commissioned by IFAD and funded by the French Development Agency, which found that five of nine major crops have already begun to lose optimal suitability globally.

The projections are particularly concerning for major producers of coffee and wheat, with significant regional declines expected in parts of North America, Latin America, and Europe. For global markets, this raises the prospect of tighter supply conditions, increased volatility in commodity prices, and rising adaptation costs across supply chains. Coffee producers in particular may face reduced yields in traditional growing zones, with implications for export revenues and farm-level income in developing economies.

While crops like maize and rice might initially benefit from shifting climatic conditions in some regions, the study warns of possible reversals under high-emission scenarios later in the century. That trajectory could complicate long-term investment decisions and infrastructure planning for food companies, insurers, and financial institutions with exposure to agricultural assets.

In addition to crop suitability forecasts, FAO plans to introduce modules on livestock heat stress and crop water demand later this year. The tool, launched in 2024 and included in the COP28 national action toolkit, aims to support governments in integrating climate resilience into agricultural policy and development planning. It also offers agribusiness stakeholders an open-source platform for preliminary climate risk assessment tied to land use and investment decisions.