Russia expects 10% increase in fertilizer production and export rebound

Russia’s mineral fertilizer industry is poised for a significant resurgence, with projections indicating a return to 2021 production and export levels, according to Andrei Guryev, head of the Russian Fertilizers Producers Association (RFPA). The nation’s fertilizer production has seen a 9% increase year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2023, reaching 53 million tonnes, with expectations to culminate the year matching the 59 million tonnes recorded in 2021.

This anticipated recovery comes after a challenging period where fertilizer production and exports experienced declines. In 2022, production fell by more than 7% to 54.3 million tonnes, with exports dropping 15%. However, if the current capacity utilization is maintained, the RFPA forecasts a 10% increase in production for 2024, potentially exceeding 64 million tonnes, alongside a substantial recovery in export volumes.

The rebound in Russia’s fertilizer production and export capacity is a significant development in the global agricultural sector, affecting pricing, supply chains, and international trade dynamics. As one of the world’s leading fertilizer producers, Russia’s output plays a crucial role in global agriculture, impacting food production and market stability across various regions. This recovery is closely watched by markets and governments alike, as it signals a potential easing of the global fertilizer supply constraints experienced in recent years.