Friday’s Insider: The dominance of gas in 2025 — Shifting dynamics in energy and fertilizer markets

Ask me what dominates conversations as we step into 2025, and I would answer without hesitation — gas. The topic has been dissected in detail by industry experts and news outlets, underscoring its critical importance. But beyond the headlines and analyses, a few lesser-discussed developments stand out, and they’re worth exploring.

Iran’s gas shortages and the ripple effect on urea production

The cracks in Iranian urea production became evident in December as gas shortages disrupted operations across the country. This triggered a ripple effect throughout the region. Turkey, seizing the opportunity, ramped up its purchases to fill the gap.

The domino effect continued, allowing Russian suppliers to bypass Indian tenders and secure more favorable deals in alternative markets. Egyptian producers also took advantage of these dynamics, strengthening their positions and diversifying their export portfolios.

The end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

Another seismic shift in the energy landscape is the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. For nearly three years of conflict, gas flows via Ukraine’s pipelines had persisted, providing a critical lifeline for many in Europe. However, that era has come to an end, leaving profound consequences for all involved:

• Russia: With an oversupply of gas and limited avenues to develop new markets, Russia faces significant challenges. Its reliance on traditional transit routes has diminished, forcing a reevaluation of export strategies.
• Ukraine: The end of transit operations is a blow to Ukraine’s economy, cutting off a vital source of revenue. Simultaneously, rising energy costs are impacting neighboring Moldova and Romania. To complicate matters, Ukraine’s pipeline infrastructure now faces the risk of becoming a target for military strikes. Speculation is mounting that Ukraine might sell its gas infrastructure, including storage facilities, to external investors.
• The European Union: Energy insecurity across Europe has intensified. TTF prices have surged to $15/MMBtu—almost double the price from a year ago—putting pressure on governments and industries to secure alternative supplies and invest in long-term energy solutions.

China’s strategic advantage

Amidst the turmoil, China emerges as the clear winner. With limited alternative buyers for Russian gas, China is uniquely positioned to negotiate highly favorable terms. This not only strengthens China’s energy security but also solidifies its influence in global energy markets. The strategic alignment between Russia and China is expected to grow further, reshaping the balance of power in the global energy sector.

The enigma of a Qatari-Turkish pipeline

Recent whispers about a potential Qatari-Turkish pipeline through Syria have sparked intrigue, despite Qatar’s firm denial of any such plans. While the official stance dismisses the project, geopolitical dynamics in the region suggest that the idea may not be entirely off the table. This development is worth monitoring, as it has the potential to resurface in unexpected ways, altering the energy landscape in the Middle East and Europe.

As we navigate 2025, gas remains the defining issue shaping global energy and fertilizer markets. From Iran’s production disruptions to the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, the ripple effects are reshaping trade routes and alliances. Meanwhile, China’s growing influence and the potential for new pipeline projects highlight the evolving dynamics of energy security.

In this rapidly changing environment, stakeholders must remain agile and attentive to emerging opportunities and challenges, as every development carries profound implications for the global market.

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About the Author of “Friday’s Insider”: Ilya Motorygin is the co-founder of GG-Trading and brings 30 years of experience to the fertilizer industry. Renowned for his comprehensive problem-solving skills, Ilya expertly manages deals from inception to completion, overseeing aspects such as financing, supply chains, and logistics.