CF Industries reports higher Q1 2025 earnings, advances low-carbon ammonia projects

CF Industries Holdings reported first-quarter 2025 net earnings of $312 million, or $1.85 per diluted share, up from $194 million a year earlier, driven by increased production, higher product prices, and expanded capital returns to shareholders. The nitrogen and hydrogen fertilizer producer also reaffirmed its long-term strategy focused on decarbonization, with the announcement of a new joint venture and progress on carbon capture initiatives.

The company posted adjusted EBITDA of $644 million for the quarter ended March 31, compared to $459 million in the same period of 2024. Net sales rose to $1.66 billion from $1.47 billion year-over-year, supported by higher global nitrogen prices and increased sales volumes. Average selling prices rose due to higher global energy costs, which raised market-clearing prices. Gross ammonia production increased to 2.6 million tons, up from 2.1 million tons in the prior-year period, reflecting fewer weather-related outages.

CF Industries repurchased 5.4 million shares for $434 million during the first quarter. On May 6, its board authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program through 2029, to begin after the current $3 billion program is completed. Total capital expenditures for the quarter were $132 million, with full-year 2025 spending projected at $800–$900 million, including investments tied to its decarbonization strategy.

The company announced a final investment decision and formation of a joint venture with Japan-based JERA and Mitsui & Co. to build a $4 billion low-carbon ammonia facility at CF’s Blue Point Complex in Louisiana. The project, in which CF holds a 40% stake, will use autothermal reforming and carbon capture technologies to produce up to 1.4 million metric tons of low-carbon ammonia annually starting in 2029. CF will also invest $550 million to build and operate shared infrastructure at the site.

Captured CO₂ from the facility—estimated at 2.3 million metric tons per year—will be sequestered by 1PointFive, a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum, at its Pelican Sequestration Hub. The project is expected to qualify for tax credits under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code Section 45Q.

Separately, CF Industries is advancing two carbon capture projects at its Donaldsonville, Louisiana, and Yazoo City, Mississippi complexes. The Donaldsonville project is nearing completion, with startup expected later in 2025, and is designed to sequester up to 2 million metric tons of CO₂ annually in partnership with ExxonMobil. A similar initiative at Yazoo City is expected to begin operations in 2028, with 500,000 metric tons of annual sequestration capacity.

CF Industries also plans to complete a nitrous oxide abatement project at its Verdigris, Oklahoma plant in 2025. The project, which is backed by the Low Carbon Fertilizer Alliance and led by CF in partnership with consumer goods companies such as Mars Inc., is expected to cut CO₂-equivalent emissions by 600,000 metric tons annually.

In terms of market conditions, management noted that global nitrogen pricing remained firm in the first quarter, supported by constrained supply and strong agricultural demand. Factors included lower domestic urea inventories in India, continued Chinese export restrictions, and weak operating economics for producers in Europe.

The company anticipates robust demand for nitrogen fertilizers in North America during the spring application season, spurred by favorable corn returns. USDA data suggests U.S. farmers plan to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2025, up from the previous year. Brazil and India are also expected to sustain strong import demand, while Russian urea exports may rise slightly due to new capacity and geopolitical trade shifts.

Looking ahead, CF expects global nitrogen capacity additions to lag behind demand growth, estimated at 1.5% annually over the medium term, particularly as new clean energy applications emerge. The company projects its cost-advantaged North American production base will continue to benefit from favorable global energy dynamics.

CF Industries’ ammonia segment recorded higher sales volumes and average selling prices versus the same quarter in 2024, contributing to an increase in gross margin per ton. Granular urea and UAN segments also posted stronger margins year-over-year, reflecting improved pricing and consistent sales volumes, offset partly by higher natural gas input costs.