Ukraine expecting lower grain harvest this year

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has said it expects that 76.1 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds will be harvested in 2024, down from 82.6 million tonnes in 2023. It said the forecasted decrease is attributable to a reduction in the net sown area for grain crops, resulting both from unfavorable price conditions on the world market and relatively expensive port logistics.

The UGA indicated that, under current conditions, exports in the 2024/2025 season will amount to approximately 43.7 million tonnes. In the current season, it said, exports of grain and oilseeds could reach 53.1 million tonnes, assuming that operations on the Black Sea and the Danube are not disrupted.

The UGA predicted that the 2024 wheat harvest will total 20 million tonnes, compared to 22 million tonnes last year, with around 13 million tonnes available for export in 2024/2025. The 2024 barley harvest, meanwhile, is also expected to fall to 4.6 million tonnes, down from 5.8 million tonnes last year. The UGA said around two million tonnes will be exported.