Global Potash Production by Country: Canada Leads 49M-Tonne Market in 2025

Global potash mine production increased to approximately 49 million metric tons of K₂O equivalent in 2025, up from a revised 46.7 million tons in 2024, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

That represents year-on-year growth of about 5%, with Canada remaining the world’s largest producer by a wide margin. Russia, China and Belarus formed the next tier of major suppliers, while Germany, Laos, Israel and Jordan accounted for smaller but still significant shares of global output.

The latest USGS data also show an important distinction between current production and future capacity growth. Laos produced an estimated 2.4 million tons of K₂O equivalent in both 2024 and 2025 after USGS revised its historical figures, while new projects in Laos and Russia are expected to contribute significantly to global capacity expansion through 2029.

Global potash production reached 49 million tonnes in 2025

USGS estimated world mine production at 49.0 million metric tons of K₂O equivalent in 2025 compared with 46.7 million tons in 2024.

The increase of roughly 2.3 million tons was distributed unevenly between producing countries.

Canada increased estimated production from 14.4 million to 15.0 million tons, while Belarus rose from 5.0 million to 6.0 million tons and Germany increased from 2.5 million to 3.0 million tons.

Note: USGS reports mine production in metric tons of K₂O equivalent. These figures should not be compared directly with gross tonnes of potassium chloride, or MOP, without conversion.

Canada supplied almost one-third of global potash output

Canada remained the dominant potash producer in 2025 with approximately 15 million tons of K₂O equivalent, equal to about 31% of global mine production.

The country’s production is concentrated in Saskatchewan, where large underground and solution mines operated by companies including Nutrien and Mosaic supply both North American and overseas markets.

Canada’s role is amplified by its export orientation. A substantial share of Saskatchewan production moves by rail to Pacific Coast terminals before being shipped to major potash-consuming markets in Asia and Latin America.

Fertilizer Daily recently reported that Canpotex is investing C$500 million in its Neptune potash export terminal in Vancouver, reflecting the growing importance of export infrastructure as Canadian production increases.

Russia remained the world’s second-largest producer

Russia produced an estimated 10 million tons of K₂O equivalent in 2025, unchanged from USGS’s revised 2024 estimate.

That represented slightly more than 20% of global output.

Russia’s potash industry is centered on large deposits in the Perm region and remains an important supplier to international fertilizer markets despite trade restrictions and logistical changes following the invasion of Ukraine.

Russian potash continues to reach major agricultural markets, although sanctions, payment restrictions, shipping arrangements and national import policies can affect individual trade routes.

China produced about 6.3 million tonnes

China remained the third-largest individual producer in the USGS dataset at approximately 6.3 million tons of K₂O equivalent.

Unlike Canada, Russia and Belarus, however, China also has extremely large domestic fertilizer demand.

This means production ranking alone does not indicate export availability. A country can be a major potash producer while consuming a large proportion of that output domestically.

Belarus posted one of the largest production increases

USGS estimated Belarusian production at about 6 million tons of K₂O equivalent in 2025, up from a revised 5 million tons in 2024.

That represents an increase of roughly 20%.

Belarus therefore accounted for about 12% of global potash mine production in 2025.

The country’s potash industry remains heavily export-oriented, but trade flows have been reshaped by sanctions and restrictions affecting traditional Baltic export routes.

Belarusian suppliers increasingly rely on alternative logistics through Russia and other routes to reach overseas customers.

Germany increased potash production to 3 million tonnes

Germany also recorded a significant increase in the revised USGS data.

Production rose from approximately 2.5 million tons of K₂O equivalent in 2024 to 3.0 million tons in 2025.

That gave Germany about 6% of global output and kept it among the world’s five largest potash producers.

Laos did not increase estimated output in 2025

Laos is one of the most important emerging potash producers, but the latest USGS figures require careful interpretation.

The 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries revised the country’s estimated 2024 mine production to approximately 2.4 million tons of K₂O equivalent and estimated the same 2.4 million tons for 2025.

USGS therefore does not show year-on-year production growth for Laos in the latest table.

Separate USGS country data show how quickly the industry expanded before that point. Laos produced approximately 432,000 tons of K₂O equivalent in 2020, 495,000 tons in 2021, 898,000 tons in 2022 and about 2.01 million tons in 2023.

The strategic significance of Laos therefore lies less in 2025 year-on-year growth and more in its rapid expansion over the previous several years and the additional capacity planned for the remainder of the decade.

Global potash capacity could reach 77.4 million tonnes K₂O by 2029

USGS estimated world annual potash production capacity at approximately 66.1 million tons of K₂O equivalent in 2025.

Capacity is projected to increase to approximately 77.4 million tons by 2029 — an increase of about 11.3 million tons, or roughly 17%.

USGS expects much of that expansion to come from new MOP mines and capacity additions in Laos and Russia.

Production and capacity are not the same thing

The distinction between mine production and production capacity is especially important in the potash market.

USGS estimated actual global mine production at 49 million tons of K₂O equivalent in 2025 compared with theoretical annual capacity of 66.1 million tons.

That does not mean the industry had 17 million tons of immediately available market supply.

Capacity can be affected by:

• planned maintenance;
• mine sequencing;
• market demand;
• inventory management;
• rail and port logistics;
• sanctions and trade restrictions;
• temporary operational disruptions.

Installed capacity should therefore not be treated as equivalent to annual production or export availability.

What exactly does “potash” mean?

Potash is not a single chemical compound.

USGS uses the term for several mined and manufactured water-soluble potassium salts used primarily as fertilizer.

The largest commercial product is potassium chloride, commonly called muriate of potash or MOP.

Other products include potassium sulfate, or SOP, and potassium magnesium sulfate.

Why USGS reports potash in K₂O equivalent

Potash fertilizer statistics can be confusing because trade and production figures may use different units.

USGS generally expresses mine production and reserves in terms of potassium oxide equivalent, or K₂O equivalent.

K₂O is a conventional nutrient-reporting unit rather than the physical material being mined.

Commercial MOP is primarily potassium chloride, KCl, and its gross product weight is therefore higher than the corresponding K₂O-equivalent nutrient content.

This means a statistic reported as 15 million tons K₂O equivalent should not be described as 15 million tons of physical MOP.

Global potash reserves are much larger than annual production

USGS estimated world potash reserves at more than 5.9 billion metric tons of K₂O equivalent in its 2026 assessment.

This is substantially larger than annual production of approximately 49 million tons.

The figure refers to reserves meeting the USGS economic and geological definition and should not be confused with broader geological resources.

Recoverable ore tonnage is larger still because ore contains minerals and material beyond the K₂O nutrient equivalent.

Russia has the largest reported K₂O-equivalent reserves

USGS’s 2026 table estimated approximately:

Reserve estimates can change as geological information, economics, mine plans and government reporting are updated.

The United States remains highly dependent on imported potash

U.S. mine production was estimated at only about 500,000 tons of K₂O equivalent in 2025, equal to roughly 1% of world production.

Domestic consumption is substantially larger, leaving the United States heavily dependent on imported potassium fertilizer.

Canada is by far the dominant external supplier because of its large Saskatchewan production base and integrated rail connections to the U.S. market.

This supply concentration is one reason the U.S. added potash to its final 2025 Critical Minerals List.

Potash became a U.S. critical mineral in 2025

The U.S. Government formally added potash to the Critical Minerals List published in November 2025.

The designation reflects the importance of potassium fertilizer to agriculture and the country’s substantial import dependence.

Critical-mineral status does not mean the United States faces an immediate potash shortage. Instead, it identifies potash as a material whose supply disruption could have significant economic or strategic consequences.

A proposed Michigan project could add U.S. MOP capacity

USGS highlighted a proposed new potash and salt project in Osceola County, Michigan.

The developer received a conditional commitment in January 2025 for a $1.26 billion U.S. Department of Energy loan to support development.

The planned project has initial nameplate capacity of approximately 800,000 tons per year of MOP and 1 million tons per year of salt.

The loan commitment remains subject to environmental, financial, legal and technical conditions, so the planned capacity should not be described as current U.S. production.

Why potash production is geographically concentrated

Commercial potash production depends on large geological deposits of potassium salts.

Unlike nitrogen fertilizer, which can theoretically be produced anywhere with energy, hydrogen and air, potash mining can only occur where suitable mineral resources exist.

This concentrates supply in a relatively small number of countries.

In 2025, Canada, Russia, China and Belarus together accounted for approximately 76% of global potash mine production.

Adding Germany and Laos raises the share of the six largest producers to roughly 87%.

Why concentration does not automatically mean shortage

Geographic concentration increases exposure to country-specific disruptions, but the potash market also has substantial resource and capacity depth.

Global production remained well below estimated nameplate capacity in 2025, while additional projects are planned in several countries.

USGS identified potential new MOP mines beyond 2029 in Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, Morocco and Spain.

The market therefore combines concentrated current production with a relatively broad future project pipeline.

Canada’s export infrastructure is becoming more important

The largest producing region is thousands of kilometres from many major potash-consuming markets.

Saskatchewan product must move by rail to ports before reaching customers in countries such as Brazil, China, India and Indonesia.

That makes railways, terminals and ocean freight an integral part of potash supply rather than a separate issue.

Canpotex, which markets overseas potash produced by Nutrien and Mosaic, operates a specialized logistics network with thousands of dedicated railcars and export terminals.

Its latest C$500 million investment at Vancouver’s Neptune terminal is intended to improve reliability and throughput as Canadian supply expands.

What could change the global ranking?

The leading potash producers are unlikely to change rapidly because new mines require large capital investments and long development timelines.

However, several factors could change country shares over the remainder of the decade:

• new capacity in Laos and Russia;
• Canadian mine expansions;
• Belarusian production and logistics recovery;
• new Brazilian projects;
• greenfield projects in Africa and Europe;
• demand-driven production curtailments;
• sanctions and trade policy;
• rail and port constraints.

Frequently asked questions

Sources: U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey