Fertilizer prices could climb 30% in 2026 as Hormuz risks bite

An Oxford Economics fertilizer price forecast for 2026 projects that global prices could climb more than 30% this year, with urea rising even faster, as Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and geopolitical tension keep supply tight.

The warning extends a theme Fertilizer Daily has tracked through the Hormuz crisis, where the urea-to-corn price ratio hit record highs as nitrogen economics skewed against growers. Oxford Economics said affordability, measured by the grains-to-fertilizer price ratio, sits near historic lows, magnifying the hit to yields and margins.

Nitrogen and phosphate remain most exposed because they depend on global production hubs and shipping lanes. “Half of the sulfur traded in the world comes through the Strait,” said Corey Rosenbusch, president and chief executive of The Fertilizer Institute, noting sulfur is a key input for phosphate fertilizers such as MAP and DAP. He said growers need better transparency into how global supply and demand set the price they pay at home.

Much of the risk is still ahead. Many large buyers locked in 2026 fertilizer costs before the latest spike, so the impact could surface over the next 12 to 18 months, according to Frank Kenney, a vice president at supply-chain software firm Cleo. Smaller retailers and independent growers, with less room to hedge or pre-book, are likely to feel it most. Watch how long the Gulf shipping premium persists and whether those locked-in costs begin to unwind.

Source: CropLife