Urea futures slide to $416/t, down 28% on the month as oversupply weighs
The urea futures benchmark fell to about $416 per tonne on June 4, down roughly 6% on the day and about 28% over the past month, as oversupply and softer post-application demand pulled prices lower, according to Trading Economics data.
The decline extends a months-long retreat from wartime peaks. Middle East urea (FOB) has eased to about $630 per tonne, though that remains roughly 28% above pre-conflict levels, according to Argus Media assessments compiled by IFDC.
Traders point to ample supply and a seasonal lull in buying after the Northern Hemisphere application window, compounded by China’s gradual return to the export market. Phosphate prices have held firm over the same period, with DAP around $869 to $875 per tonne, leaving nitrogen as the weakest of the major nutrients.
A move of this size carries to the farm gate. A swing of $30 per tonne in urea translates to roughly $15 to $20 per acre in nitrogen costs for U.S. corn growers.
Whether the slide continues depends on the pace of Chinese export clearances and the next round of Indian tender demand, which traders expect to firm later in the summer.
Source: Trading Economics
What to know about the urea price slide
The futures benchmark eased to about $416 per tonne on June 4, down roughly 6% on the day and about 28% over the month, according to Trading Economics. On a physical basis, Middle East FOB urea has dropped to about $630 per tonne but remains roughly 28% above pre-conflict levels, per Argus assessments compiled by IFDC.
Three factors dominate: ample global supply, a seasonal lull in buying after the Northern Hemisphere application window, and China’s gradual return to the export market. An easing of the Gulf shipping risk premium has also taken pressure off prices.
Phosphate supply remains tighter than nitrogen. DAP has held around $869 to $875 per tonne and MAP near $907 to $927 per tonne, keeping phosphates elevated even as urea retreats. The divergence leaves nitrogen as the weakest major nutrient in the current market.
Lower urea prices ease nitrogen bills heading into the back half of the season. As a rule of thumb, a $30-per-tonne move in urea shifts U.S. corn nitrogen costs by roughly $15 to $20 per acre, a meaningful swing for growers managing tight margins.
The near-term path hinges on how quickly China clears export volumes and on the timing of the next major Indian tender. Traders expect demand to firm later in the summer, which could put a floor under prices.
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