DAP holds at $915–935/t as phosphate stays tight while potash softens on weak Brazilian demand

Processed phosphate benchmarks edged lower in the week ending August 28 as sellers showed greater flexibility, yet structural supply constraints kept prices elevated. DAP delivered to India was assessed at $915–935 per tonne CFR, compared with $930–935 the prior week, according to the Australian Fertilizer Corporation’s weekly market summary.

Potash markets are entering a softer phase. Pupuk Indonesia issued its third 75,000-tonne MOP tender of the year for September shipment, drawing first-round offers at $440–450 per tonne CFR. Comfortable supply from Belarus, Russia, Canada and Laos is expected to keep potash well supplied through 2027, though Southeast Asian tenders provide a limited outlet as Brazil delays purchases.

European production economics remain under pressure. September Dutch TTF gas traded above €66.50 per megawatt-hour, equivalent to more than $22.70/MMBtu. At that level, indicative break-even costs for an efficient European ammonia plant approach $837 per tonne ex-works, and urea break-even sits near $605 per tonne.

“The urea market is being supported by cost and logistics rather than a broad demand surge,” AFC CEO Stein Haugan said. “India’s next move and Brazil’s willingness to transact will determine whether the current firmness can be sustained.”

Source: Australian Fertilizer Corporation