sulfur
The WTO tracker shows fertilizer and LNG flows through Hormuz remain at a standstill despite the June MoU on safe shipping.
Sulfur above $1,000/t drives DAP costs higher as Hormuz and Russia supply cuts remove two-thirds of globally traded sulfur.
CoBank says phosphate output capacity may fall 13% from pre-crisis levels, keeping fertilizer prices elevated well into 2027.
Urea steadied near $409/t on new deals while phosphate stayed elevated on sulfur cost pressure heading into Q4.
Maaden ships first DAP cargo through Oman’s Duqm port, cutting freight costs to India by nearly half
The Saudi producer is trucking phosphate overland from Ras Al-Khair to load 60,000 tonnes at Duqm after Houthi threats raised Red Sea risk.
Egyptian producer NCIC awards DAP at $915–920 per metric ton FOB in its August tender, up sharply from $890–900 in July as phosphate supply stays tight.
The 60-day US-Iran agreement lapsed on August 17 without a final deal and Iran says the strait will not reopen until all conditions are met.
More than half of traded sulfur transits Hormuz, and Russia’s export ban compounds the loss, threatening phosphate output worldwide.
Mosaic settles Q3 sulfur at $705/long ton, guides DAP at $820–$840 as phosphate curtailments persist
Gulf Coast refiner contracts secured below spot give Mosaic a cost edge, but phosphate volumes will stay constrained through H2 2026.
The coordinate agreement is the most tangible step toward reopening the critical fertilizer trade chokepoint since the conflict began.
Phosphate production costs rose 26% to $812 per tonne as constrained sulfur supplies squeezed margins, while Nutrien said it expects to determine a path forward for the business this year.
Sulfur constraints forced production curtailments at four U.S. plants while the Brazilian division posted a $41 million operating loss on falling volumes.
ITC analysis of April 2026 trade data finds alternative suppliers offset the Hormuz shortfall only for ammonia and polypropylene, leaving urea and sulfur critically short.
Record first-half potash production and higher nitrogen benchmarks powered the quarter, though phosphate margins turned negative under sulfur cost pressure.
The carve-out for potash, sulfur and other agricultural inputs protects a critical supply route as broader duties on about $20 billion of Canadian goods take effect August 19.
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