Russian market doesn’t expect shortages of mineral fertilizers

According to the statement of the Russian Fertilizer Producers Association (RFPA), the limitation of the mineral fertilizer exports introduced by the Russian government will help to ensure the provision of fertilizers to the domestic market and allay the concerns of Russian farmers regarding the supply of mineral fertilizers for spring sowing.

“By its decision, the government has consolidated the existing distribution of mineral fertilizers between the domestic and foreign markets,” said Maxim Kuznetsov, Executive Director of RFPA. “Therefore, we expect that the imposed quotas won’t harm the loading of production capacities, which is now close to 100%. Fertilizer production is increasing and, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, in the January-September period, the growth was 5.6%.

We also see no risks for the future implementation of the industry’s investment programs in the volume of 2 trillion rubles (approximately $28 billion), which are mainly aimed at saturating the Russian market with mineral fertilizers.”

As follows from the statement of Maxim Kuznetsov, the exports limitation will support a favorable situation in global markets, therefore, Russian non-resource non-energy exports will only benefit in value terms.

Moreover, the prices for mineral fertilizers are voluntarily restrained by producers in Russia, which in the future will allow exporters of agricultural products to operate effectively on global markets. Thus, quotas will become an additional measure to improve the efficiency of the Russian agro-industrial complex.

The domestic market has always been a priority for Russian producers of mineral fertilizers. Over the past five years, Russian agriculture has almost doubled its consumption. In 2021, this volume increased by 13% to 4.52 million tons, of which 97% have already been supplied to farmers. There is no shortage of mineral fertilizers and it is not expected.

Having provided themselves with the required amount of phosphorus fertilizers for the autumn fieldwork, farmers have already begun to prepare for the spring season by purchasing nitrogen fertilizers. A significant share of purchases shifted from spring to autumn. Due to the increased demand, Russian producers extended the regime of frozen prices for mineral fertilizers until the end of 2021, ensuring stable conditions for creating the necessary reserves for spring fieldwork.