Friday’s Insider: Fertilizer affordability — A scary fall

I missed a month, but the US market was complete madness, with urea prices going through the roof. Now, everything seems to be returning to “normal”, so let’s get back to it. It wasn’t intentional – just a rather hectic travel schedule, including a trip to the IFA 2025 and many other commitments.

What did I miss last month? Most notably, the news that China is back in both the urea and DAP markets. Albeit with some restrictions on quantities, minimum prices, and the shipping period — but yes, China is back.

So, let’s take a look at what has happened to affordability over the past 45 days, as my last reference date was April 11, 2025.

To recap, I use recent CBOT values for wheat and corn and compare them with FOB per short tonne prices of DAP and urea in NOLA.

So, let’s begin.

Key Inputs: May 30, 2025 vs. April 11, 2025

Here’s how the numbers compare:

• Corn Price: $4.23 per bushel $4.97 per bushel (dramatically down comparing to $4.97 on April 11, 2025)
• Wheat Price: $5.48 per bushel (same picture as corn comparing to $5.70 on April 11, 2025)
• Urea FOB NOLA: $390 per short tonne (down from $408 on April 11, 2025)
• DAP FOB NOLA: $700 per short tonne (up from $645 on April 11, 2025)

Now, let’s return to our relatively simple affordability calculations and analysis.

Affordability Ratios (2024–2025)

Affordability is calculated as the ratio of crop prices to fertilizer prices, offering a clearer understanding of the cost burden on producers.

Urea Affordability

Corn Producers

Analysis: Affordability for corn producers has sharply declibed, now reaching its lowest level since I began tracking in June 2024.

Wheat Producers

Analysis: It’s back to above 0.14 level, however it’s not even close to the levels were seen in 2024.

DAP Affordability

Corn Producers

Analysis: No surprise – with corn prices slamed in May, the DAP affordability ratio is now the lowest one since June 2024.

Wheat Producers

Analysis: Same is related to the DAP affordability for wheat producers. This is now the lowest index since June 2024, when I began tracking affordability.

Comparison to February

1. Urea:
   • Corn producers: Affordability decreased by 10.92% in May 2025 – a huge number!
   • Wheat producers: Affordability increased by 0.57%
2. DAP:
   • Corn producers: Affordability decreased by 12.99%
   • Wheat producers: Affordability fell by 11.36%

Analysis of Trends

Seriously, this affordability scares me a lot. And my question is – are we pushing beyond the limits? Yes, corn acreage in the US is historically high, which is driving prices down, but will farmers now skip the summer refill, claiming that urea is simply too expensive?

As for DAP – until India solves its huge shortage, prices are unlikely to fall. Is there a real alternative for the farmers?

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About the Author of “Friday’s Insider”: Ilya Motorygin is the co-founder of GG-Trading and brings 30 years of experience to the fertilizer industry. Renowned for his comprehensive problem-solving skills, Ilya expertly manages deals from inception to completion, overseeing aspects such as financing, supply chains, and logistics.