Kazakhstan wheat exports near record as feed flour shipments to China surge

Kazakhstan’s wheat and barley production is projected to reach near-record levels in the 2025/26 marketing year, with wheat exports expected to approach 10.0 million metric tons (MMT), according to a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service. Wheat output is forecast at 18.0 MMT, slightly below last year’s bumper harvest, as farmers shifted some acreage to more profitable oilseeds. Improved yields helped offset the reduction in planted area.

Wheat exports rose sharply in the first four months of the marketing year, climbing nearly 40% year over year to 5.3 MMT between September and December. Key destinations included Central Asian neighbors, Afghanistan and Azerbaijan, while smaller volumes were shipped to Italy and Algeria via Baltic ports. The government’s extension of transportation subsidies through September 2026 has supported trade flows, though a recent amendment to the tax code reducing VAT reimbursements for grain exporters has slowed shipments early this year and could weigh on exports if left unchanged.

At the same time, exports of feed flour — a blend of roughly 80% feed-grade wheat and 20% barley — to China more than doubled in the first quarter to 1.2 MMT. Industry sources estimate shipments could reach as much as 3.0 MMT by the end of the marketing year. While direct wheat exports to China declined due to rail congestion and inspection delays, rising feed flour trade reflects strong demand linked to China’s livestock sector and Kazakhstan’s expanding domestic animal inventories.

Barley production is forecast at 3.6 MMT, the second highest on record, with exports projected at 1.8 MMT, down from last year amid weaker sales to Iran and China. Higher freight costs on the Caspian Sea and rail bottlenecks contributed to the decline, partially offset by stronger shipments to Uzbekistan.