UN warns El Niño could intensify global weather extremes through 2027

The United Nations is urging governments and industries to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event after climate forecasters warned that the weather pattern is rapidly developing in the Pacific Ocean and could significantly affect global temperatures and precipitation over the coming months.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will become established between June and August 2026, with the likelihood rising to around 90% that the phenomenon will persist through at least November. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño is “arriving on our doorstep,” warning that it could amplify the impacts of global warming by intensifying droughts, heavy rainfall, and heat waves across multiple regions. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said governments should prepare for potentially severe consequences affecting agriculture, water resources, public health, and energy systems.

Forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate nearly a 60% chance that El Niño will strengthen into a major event by autumn, while some climate models suggest a one-in-three probability of a rare “super El Niño,” characterized by Pacific Ocean surface temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius above average. Scientists have identified unusually warm subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific—more than 6 degrees Celsius above normal in some areas—as a key factor supporting the event’s development. However, forecasters caution that uncertainty remains regarding its ultimate intensity.

A strong El Niño typically reshapes global weather patterns by altering atmospheric circulation and jet stream dynamics. The WMO expects wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of the southern United States, eastern Africa, Central Asia, and southern South America, while drier weather is forecast for Central America, northern South America, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of the Caribbean. The phenomenon is also expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing tropical cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific.

The potential impacts carry significant implications for global agriculture and food production. Regions with below-average rainfall could experience crop stress, reduced yields, and water shortages, while excessive rainfall elsewhere may increase flooding risks and disrupt planting and harvesting. The WMO noted that seasonal forecasts already indicate concerns for the Greater Horn of Africa, South Asia, and Central America, where rainfall patterns during critical growing periods may be adversely affected.

Climate experts also expect El Niño to contribute to record or near-record global temperatures in 2026. Because the warming influence of El Niño often peaks in the year following its onset, forecasters said elevated temperatures could extend into 2027, depending on the strength and duration of the event.

Source: The Weather Channel