U.S. phosphate fertilizer prices: duties suspended in 2026

U.S. phosphate fertilizer prices in 2026: duties suspended on Moroccan imports

U.S. farmers could see lower phosphate fertilizer costs after the federal government temporarily suspended countervailing duties on certain imports from Morocco, reversing part of a trade policy that has shaped the American phosphate market since 2021.

On June 29, 2026, the U.S. government authorized an eight-month suspension of duties on certain Moroccan phosphate fertilizer imports. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the measure is intended to increase fertilizer availability and competition as farmers prepare for future application and planting seasons. USDA estimates that the additional supply could reduce phosphate fertilizer prices by approximately 22%, generating about $1.82 billion in annual savings for U.S. producers and affecting more than 100,000 farms across 97 million planted acres.

The decision represents a significant change from the conditions described by Fertilizer Daily in 2021, when foreign phosphate producers faced substantial countervailing duties and U.S. farmers were raising concerns about fertilizer prices and market concentration.

What changed in 2026

The June proclamation temporarily suspended collection of countervailing duties on qualifying phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco for eight months.

The White House proclamation states that U.S. domestic phosphate fertilizer production is currently insufficient to satisfy agricultural demand after exports are taken into account. It also notes that farmers typically apply more than half of annual phosphate fertilizer consumption between fall and early spring.

The policy therefore focuses on increasing supply before major fertilizer application periods.

The 22% figure is a USDA estimate, rather than evidence that retail phosphate prices have already fallen by that amount. Actual prices will depend on import volumes, global phosphate markets, transportation costs, raw-material availability and regional demand.

Why duties were imposed in the first place

The current dispute dates back to 2020, when U.S. phosphate producer Mosaic petitioned the federal government to investigate whether producers in Morocco and Russia were receiving government subsidies.

In February 2021, the U.S. Department of Commerce determined that phosphate fertilizer producers in both countries were receiving countervailable subsidies. The resulting orders were issued in April 2021.

The original final subsidy rates varied significantly by producer.

Before the duties, Morocco and Russia were important suppliers to the U.S. market. Commerce reported that U.S. phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco totaled more than 2.0 million metric tons in 2019, valued at approximately $729 million. Imports from Russia reached about 767,000 metric tons, valued at approximately $299 million.

The duties were intended to offset subsidies that U.S. authorities determined were benefiting foreign producers.

The trade dispute is not over

The temporary Moroccan suspension does not mean the underlying countervailing duty order has permanently disappeared.

In 2026, the U.S. International Trade Commission began the first five-year reviews of the phosphate fertilizer orders covering Morocco and Russia. The Commission subsequently decided to conduct full reviews to determine whether removing the measures permanently would be likely to lead to renewed material injury to the U.S. phosphate fertilizer industry.

This means several processes are now happening at the same time:

• duties on certain Moroccan imports have been temporarily suspended;
• the underlying trade order remains subject to formal review;
• litigation connected with the original orders continues;
• Russian phosphate fertilizer remains subject to separate proceedings;
• U.S. authorities continue examining the long-term structure of domestic fertilizer supply.

The situation could therefore change again after the temporary suspension expires.

Mosaic continues to defend the trade measures

Mosaic, one of the largest phosphate fertilizer producers in North America, originally filed the petitions that led to the 2021 duties.

In its latest Form 10-Q filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Mosaic confirmed that legal challenges involving the Moroccan and Russian orders remain active. The company also noted that the June 29 proclamation temporarily suspended collection of countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer for eight months.

Mosaic maintains that the original duties were designed to address foreign subsidies and restore fair competition to the U.S. market.

At the same time, the company reported significant pressure from global fertilizer market conditions in 2026, including higher sulfur and ammonia costs and supply constraints. Mosaic said geopolitical disruptions had tightened supplies of fertilizer products and important raw materials.

This is important because tariffs are only one component of phosphate fertilizer pricing.

What determines U.S. phosphate fertilizer prices?

Phosphate fertilizer prices paid by U.S. farmers are influenced by several factors:

1. Import duties and trade policy. Duties can change the economics of imported MAP, DAP and other phosphate fertilizers.
2. Domestic production. U.S. phosphate production remains concentrated among a relatively small number of producers.
3. Global phosphate supply. Morocco is one of the world’s major phosphate producers and exporters.
4. Sulfur and ammonia prices. Both are important inputs in the manufacture of finished phosphate fertilizers.
5. Transportation costs. Fertilizer prices can differ substantially between Gulf, Midwest and other regional markets.
6. Seasonal demand. Demand typically increases around fall application and spring planting periods.
7. Crop economics. Corn, soybean and wheat prices influence how much farmers are willing or able to spend on nutrients.

USDA now publishes regional prices for products including MAP and DAP, making it possible to track how phosphate fertilizer markets respond over time rather than relying solely on national estimates.

Fertilizer costs are rising again in 2026

The tariff suspension comes at a time when fertilizer remains a significant financial pressure for U.S. agriculture.

The USDA Economic Research Service currently forecasts that U.S. spending on fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners will increase by $5.3 billion in 2026, or approximately 15.3% compared with 2025.

These figures measure different things and should not be interpreted as directly offsetting one another. The USDA farm-expense forecast covers fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners broadly, while the $1.82 billion estimate relates specifically to the expected effect of greater phosphate fertilizer availability following the Moroccan duty suspension.

How the situation has changed since 2021

When Fertilizer Daily originally covered this issue in June 2021, the newly introduced countervailing duties had changed the supply conditions for Russian and Moroccan phosphate fertilizer in the United States. The original article cited claims from PhosAgro that U.S. farmers were paying substantially more for phosphate fertilizers than farmers in some other markets.

Five years later, the policy environment has shifted.

The original question — whether U.S. farmers are paying more because of reduced competition — has therefore become part of a broader debate involving fertilizer affordability, domestic production capacity and supply-chain security.

What U.S. farmers should watch next

The next several months will show whether greater Moroccan supply translates into materially lower MAP and DAP prices at the farm level.

Key indicators include:

• volumes of Moroccan phosphate fertilizer arriving in the United States;
• regional MAP and DAP prices;
• fall 2026 fertilizer application demand;
• sulfur and ammonia costs;
• the outcome of the U.S. five-year trade review;
• any extension or expiration of the eight-month duty suspension.

The temporary measure may increase competition, but it does not remove the broader supply risks affecting the phosphate fertilizer market.

What this means for the U.S. fertilizer market

The 2026 duty suspension marks one of the most important changes in U.S. phosphate fertilizer trade policy since the original countervailing duty orders were imposed in 2021.

For farmers, the immediate issue is affordability. USDA estimates that increased imports could reduce phosphate fertilizer prices by around 22%, although actual market prices will determine whether those projected savings materialize.

For domestic producers, the debate remains different: the original duties were introduced after federal authorities found countervailable foreign subsidies, and the government is still reviewing whether those protections remain necessary.

The result is a U.S. phosphate fertilizer market caught between two policy objectives — maintaining competitive domestic production and ensuring farmers have access to sufficient fertilizer at economically sustainable prices.

Sources: USDA, White House, U.S. Department of Commerce, USITC, SEC, USDA ERS