Farmers in Argentina battle drought and a shrinking harvest

In Veinticinco de Mayo, Argentina, amidst his parched fields of corn, farmer Dario Sabini surveys the undersized cobs and crinkles the withered, yellowing leaves—signs of a crop irrevocably lost to drought. Sabini’s predicament is emblematic of a broader agricultural crisis in Argentina, as a persistent dry spell prompts a downward revision of grain forecasts in one of the world’s leading exporters of soy oil, meal, and corn.

“The plant is already yellow, it will not come back,” remarks Sabini, who manages over 3,000 hectares of soybeans, corn, and beef cattle about 200 kilometers west of Buenos Aires. The recent drought has significantly impacted thousands of farmers across the region, compounded by the climatic effects of La Niña since January.

According to the Buenos Aires grains exchange, the 2024/25 harvest projections for soybeans have been reduced to 49.6 million tons and corn to 49 million tons, with the possibility of further decline. “It has to rain soon,” says Juan Gardey, another local farmer, amid his withering soy crops. “You see a lot of aborted flowers and you can see that their development has stopped.”

The implications of these reduced harvests extend beyond the farms, threatening Argentina’s economy which heavily relies on grain exports for foreign currency. This currency is vital for supporting the local peso and bolstering state finances.

Agro-climatologist Eduardo Sierra, advisor to the grains exchange, suggests that the soy and corn harvests could plummet well below current estimates without timely rainfall. “If it started to rain now, you could have 45 million tons of each crop. Every week in February that goes by without rain, you lose 5 million tons more,” he explains.

This year’s grain output is anticipated to fall short of last year’s totals, which stood at 50.2 million tons of soy and 49.5 million tons of corn. The forecasted rains over the coming weeks are uncertain in both timing and distribution, potentially leaving some agricultural areas dry.

Amid these challenges, Argentina’s government, led by libertarian President Javier Milei, has temporarily reduced taxes on agricultural exports to encourage quicker sales that generate essential foreign currency. Despite this, the actual benefits perceived by farmers like José Cozzi from the Lobos region are minimal due to stagnant international prices and high local costs.

“The outlook is pretty uncertain, yields are going to be low for both corn and soybeans. Basically, everything is complicated,” Cozzi told Reuters.

The tax cuts have led to a slight increase in local soybean prices, but the impact on farmers’ revenue and the overall export volume remains constrained, suggesting that the fiscal policy may not achieve its intended relief for the agricultural sector.

As Argentina grapples with these multifaceted challenges, the outcomes will resonate through its economy, affecting both domestic stability and international market dynamics.

Source: Reuters