US soybeans move toward first China shipment since May

The first US soybean cargoes bound for China since May are preparing to load at Gulf Coast terminals, signaling a tentative reopening of the United States’ most important agricultural export market after months of stalled trade.

According to a shipping schedule, two vessels — Ocean Harvest and Tokugawa — are scheduled to load soybeans this week at grain terminals near New Orleans. A third vessel, the Bungo Queen, is expected to take on sorghum at an Archer-Daniels-Midland terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas, marking the first US sorghum shipment to China since March. The movements follow a period in which Beijing sharply curtailed purchases of US crops, costing American farmers billions in lost trade.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Monday, November 24, she expects the administration to announce a farmer-aid package within the next two weeks, alongside further details on Chinese soybean commitments.  The American Farm Bureau Federation said the assistance is “urgently needed” as producers contend with higher input costs and lower commodity prices.

US officials have said China agreed during an October meeting in South Korea between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans before year-end, and up to 25 million metric tons annually over the next three years. China has not publicly confirmed the terms. Still, Rollins said she is confident Beijing will follow through, noting that purchase orders are being placed and initial shipments have already begun.

China has booked nearly 2 million metric tons of US soybeans in recent weeks, as well as smaller wheat volumes, according to government and industry data. The acceleration helped lift crop prices after months of uncertainty. “Every sign is their commitment remains true,” Rollins said, adding that not all volumes would necessarily ship before December but that orders would be logged.

Trump said that he held a “very good” call with Xi on Monday, November 24, during which they discussed soybean sales, broader agricultural trade and cooperation on fentanyl. A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy said the two countries had reached consensus on agricultural issues during October talks in Kuala Lumpur and that China “will continue to uphold an attitude of openness and cooperation.”

Despite the renewed activity, traders remain cautious. China has diversified its sourcing toward Brazil and Argentina, and abrupt shifts in political or geopolitical conditions — particularly surrounding Taiwan — could disrupt flows. US officials have also emphasized the importance of broadening export markets to Japan, the European Union and other buyers to reduce reliance on China.

For now, the pending shipments offer a boost to grain markets heading into the final weeks of the year. With the US harvest largely complete, exporters are watching for a steadier pace of bookings as the administration works to finalize the trade agreement in the coming weeks.