CF Industries raises mid-cycle EBITDA to $2.9 billion, sees nitrogen supply tight through 2027

CF Industries raised its mid-cycle EBITDA baseline to $2.9 billion during its Q2 2026 earnings call, reflecting the company’s view that global nitrogen supply will remain structurally tight through at least 2027. The largest U.S. nitrogen producer said the Iran conflict has fundamentally reset nitrogen market dynamics by removing roughly 4 to 4.5 million metric tons of urea and approximately 1 million metric tons of ammonia from internationally traded supply.

CF Industries nearly doubled its quarterly profit in Q2 2026, with the company benefiting from elevated nitrogen margins as domestic plants ran at essentially full utilization. Management emphasized that the supply deficit created by the Hormuz blockade cannot be quickly resolved even if diplomatic progress continues, because damaged port infrastructure, depleted inventories and insurance complications will delay any meaningful resumption of Middle Eastern exports.

The $2.9 billion mid-cycle CF Industries EBITDA estimate is significantly above the company’s pre-conflict baseline and implies that management expects elevated nitrogen prices to persist as a new normal rather than a temporary disruption. CF Industries noted that no major new nitrogen capacity is scheduled to come online globally before late 2028, and that brownfield expansions at existing plants face long lead times for equipment and permitting.

The company generated $1.1 billion in free cash flow during the first half of 2026 and returned $700 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. CF Industries also confirmed it continues to evaluate clean ammonia opportunities, including potential off-take agreements that would allow it to sell low-carbon ammonia at a premium once carbon border mechanisms such as the EU’s CBAM take full effect.