China buys more Argentine soybeans after tax cut, sidelining US suppliers

Chinese importers have stepped up purchases of Argentine soybeans after Buenos Aires temporarily removed its export taxes, securing at least 10 cargoes for delivery later this year and further reducing demand for US supplies.

Traders said the deals, struck this week, involve Panamax vessels carrying about 65,000 metric tons each, scheduled for November shipment. Prices were quoted at a premium of $2.15–$2.30 per bushel over the Chicago Board of Trade’s November soybean contract. Some traders suggested the tally could reach 15 cargoes, while others said China may have already booked as many as 20, equivalent to roughly 1.3 million tons.

The shift comes during a period traditionally dominated by US exports but now overshadowed by China’s avoidance of American cargoes amid the continuing trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. The absence of Chinese buying is pressuring US farmers at the start of their harvest season, with soybean futures already near five-year lows.

“Every time China turns to South America instead of the US, soybean farmers and our farm families here at home lose out,” said Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association. “Without a trade deal that removes retaliatory tariffs, farmers like me are left watching key opportunities slip away.”

Argentina’s government said the suspension of its 26% soybean export duty will last until the end of October, or until declared grain exports reach $7 billion. The measure immediately boosted the competitiveness of Argentine beans and drove down Chinese soymeal and soybean oil futures by 3.5% on Tuesday, September 23.

“China is likely to accelerate purchases of Argentine soybeans to fill the procurement gap from November to January before the October 31 deadline or the $7-billion quota limit,” said Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Sublime China Information.

China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has yet to order any US shipments from this autumn’s crop. In previous years, the country would already have bought 12–13 million tons of US soybeans for September–November delivery. Instead, purchases in recent months have largely come from South America, with Brazil and now Argentina increasing their market share.

Chinese buyers are said to be enjoying favorable crushing margins of around 200 yuan ($28) a ton for Argentine beans, though analysts caution the impact of the tax cut may be short-lived given the policy’s limited duration and Argentina’s overall export capacity.

“Looking ahead, the key factors to watch are actual Argentine soybean arrivals and the outcome of US-China trade talks, which will determine import flows into early next year,” said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures.