Mosaic settles Q3 sulfur at $705/long ton, guides DAP at $820–$840 as phosphate curtailments persist

Mosaic has locked in its Q3 2026 molten sulfur contracts at $705 per long ton, securing supply below prevailing spot prices through relationships with Gulf Coast refiners, the company disclosed during its second-quarter earnings call. Mosaic guided Q3 DAP realizations at $820 to $840 per metric ton FOB plant, reflecting the pass-through of elevated sulfur and other raw material costs into finished phosphate pricing.

The Mosaic sulfur settlement is a critical data point for the phosphate industry, which has been grappling with a global sulfur shortage triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and Russia’s extended sulfur export ban. Mosaic previously curtailed production at four U.S. phosphate plants as sulfur availability tightened, contributing to a $273 million net loss in Q2 2026.

Management indicated that phosphate production volumes will remain constrained through the second half of 2026, with the pace of any recovery tied directly to sulfur supply normalization. The company expects to produce approximately 1.8 million to 2.0 million metric tons of finished phosphate in Q3, below its pre-crisis run rate. Potash operations, which are not sulfur-dependent, continued at full capacity with Q3 MOP realizations guided at $260 to $280 per metric ton FOB mine.

Analysts noted that Mosaic’s ability to secure sulfur below spot through long-term refiner agreements gives it a cost advantage over competitors relying on the open market, where molten sulfur has traded above $800 per long ton at times during 2026. The company’s Q3 phosphate guidance implies margins will remain compressed but positive, an improvement over the loss-making Q2 quarter.