West Africa begins contracting Russian fertilizer for Q3 2026 as Hormuz crisis reshapes global supply alliances

West African fertilizer importers have begun contracting Russian nitrogen and potash fertilizers for the third quarter of 2026, in a development that reflects a fundamental reorientation of global fertilizer trade flows caused by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Nigeria and Ghana have led the shift, contracting Russian supplies to lock in availability ahead of the main West African agricultural application season, according to analysis published by Noria Research. Russia and Belarus together account for approximately 40% of global potash exports, 23% of ammonia exports and 14–16% of urea exports. Their export logistics are unaffected by the Gulf war, and Russia’s food and fertilizer exports remain exempt from Western sanctions — giving Moscow full freedom to redirect volumes toward new customers.

The diplomatic outreach required to secure these purchases involves dealing directly with Russian state and quasi-state fertilizer exporters, establishing new commercial and governmental relationships. Analysts say these ties are likely to persist beyond the current crisis. “The diplomatic relationships being established in this crisis will shape the geopolitics of fertilizer supply for years,” Noria Research noted in its analysis of the Iran war’s economic impact.

Russia is the single most readily available high-volume alternative to Middle East supply, with the capacity to redirect nitrogen and potash cargoes that previously went to Europe. European buyers have sharply reduced Russian fertilizer purchases since 2022 as part of the broader response to Moscow’s war against Ukraine, freeing up Russian export capacity that is now being absorbed by African and Asian buyers.

The shift carries longer-term implications for African food security. Supply chains diversifying away from Western-linked channels toward geopolitically distinct alternatives could complicate future access to subsidized or humanitarian fertilizer programs coordinated through multilateral agencies and Western donor networks — a risk that development analysts and food security organizations are beginning to flag.

Source: Noria Research