Global phosphate production to hit just 45 Mt vs 75 Mt demand, Mosaic warns of critical shortage

Global phosphate production will reach only about 45 million tons this year against typical annual consumption of 75 million tons, because producers cannot get or afford sulfur, Mosaic vice president of public affairs Ben Pratt told Farm Journal in remarks published October 21.

Pratt said sulfur, which traded between $100 and $300 per ton during his 15 years at Mosaic, is now well above $1,000. Each ton of phosphate Mosaic makes requires about 0.4 tons of sulfur. He warned that farmers could face not only higher prices but areas where phosphate cannot be found at all, and described the situation as a looming food crisis.

StoneX vice president of fertilizer Josh Linville estimated that roughly half of the world’s sulfur supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, with Russia accounting for another 17%. He said lower phosphate demand would not free up supply, because producers respond to weaker prices by shutting more capacity. Linville expects fertilizer prices to stay elevated into spring 2027 even if Hormuz traffic normalizes.

University of Illinois researchers report that U.S. DAP prices have climbed from about $700 per ton early in 2026 to around $850. Mosaic has already idled its South Fort Meade operations, and China’s phosphate exports have collapsed to near zero this year. Mosaic reports third-quarter results on November 3.

Source: AgWeb