India rabi sowing faces weak monsoon and El Niño risk

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended 13 percent below its long-period average, the fourth-lowest summer rainfall since 2001. With reservoirs well below normal and strong El Niño conditions forecast to strengthen, India rabi sowing for the winter season is expected to shift toward drought-tolerant, water-efficient crops, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture attaché report dated October 30, 2026.

Rainfall deficits hit the east and south hardest

India received 759.4 millimeters of rain from June 1 to September 30, against a long-period average of 868.6 millimeters, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). East and northeast India were 26 percent below normal, the lowest since 1901 for that region, while the South Peninsula was 24 percent short. Northwest and central India finished close to normal. Across the country, 43 percent of districts recorded deficient or largely deficient rain, 42 percent were normal and 14 percent received excess.

Deficits also persisted in Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya. The monsoon withdrew on September 19, slightly later than usual.

Reservoirs and soil moisture trail last year

Live storage in 178 major reservoirs stood at 132.734 billion cubic meters on October 1, or 71.84 percent of capacity, according to the Central Water Commission. That was 79.55 percent of last year’s level and 87.83 percent of normal. Storage was higher than last year only in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal, and unchanged in Goa.

Satellite data show negative soil moisture anomalies concentrated in southern and western interior tracts, including parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Gujarat and western Madhya Pradesh. The report says the deficits are stressing rainfed crops and shrinking groundwater tables.

Kharif sowing holds, but cotton lags

Total kharif crop sowing reached 130.25 million hectares as of October 2, down 1 percent from 131.35 million hectares a year earlier. Rice area fell 3 percent to 43.36 million hectares, while coarse cereals rose slightly to 18.72 million hectares. Pulse area climbed 2 percent to 12.24 million hectares, led by tur (pigeon pea) and urad (black gram). Oilseeds rose 1 percent to 19.67 million hectares.

Cotton is the weak spot. Planted area of 11.05 million hectares was flat from a year earlier but 12 percent below the five-year average of 12.55 million hectares.

For the supply side of the same season, see India’s fertilizer stock build ahead of the rabi season.

India rabi sowing may favor pulses and coarse grains

IMD expects normal northeast monsoon rain for South Peninsular India, at 88 to 112 percent of the long-period average for October through December. Elsewhere, below-normal rainfall is expected as strong El Niño conditions strengthen through year-end. IMD also forecast October rainfall for the whole country at below 85 percent of normal, with above-normal temperatures across most regions.

The USDA analysts expect rabi planting to tilt away from wheat and summer paddy, which need heavy irrigation, toward pulses and coarse grains, particularly in rainfed and moisture-stressed areas. The northeast monsoon matters most for southern India, which gets nearly half of its annual rainfall in that season.

Crop choices will depend on post-monsoon rainfall, irrigation access and how quickly reservoirs refill. The report does not estimate fertilizer demand, but a shift in the rabi crop mix would change nutrient needs across the season.

Source: USDA