China phosphate exports collapse to near zero in 2026 as sulfur squeeze bites, Argus sees 2mt rebound

China phosphate exports have shrunk to almost nothing in 2026 from 5.3 million tonnes in 2025, as tight sulfur supplies keep Chinese output focused on the home market, according to Argus Media analysis reported by the Western Producer.

Lynn Wang, senior consultant for China at Argus, said Beijing uses export policy to manage its domestic fertilizer market, curbing shipments of phosphate and sulfuric acid. “Because of tight sulfur supplies, Chinese phosphate fertilizer production is currently focused solely on meeting domestic demand,” she said.

Argus expects a slight rebound to about 2 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate exports next year, with further recovery once sulfur supply is more secure.

Urea tells a different story. China exported six to seven million tonnes of urea in 2026 and will likely do so again in 2027, which helped pull urea prices down since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, Argus said. Phosphate affordability, by contrast, remains at its worst level in years on Argus’s index.

China’s absence from phosphate trade adds to pressure in import-dependent markets, where a sulfur shortage is already idling Brazilian MAP, SSP and TSP capacity.

Source: Western Producer