World Bank warns fertilizer prices could surge more than 30% in 2026 if Hormuz disruption persists

The World Bank has warned that global fertilizer prices could rise by more than 30% in 2026 if shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, with nitrogen fertilizers expected to see the steepest increases due to the region’s dominant role in ammonia production and LNG exports.

According to the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, urea prices jumped 53.7% month over month to USD 725.6 per tonne in March, the highest level in four years, after the Strait of Hormuz disruption removed roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer volumes from the market. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices rose 5% to USD 658.3 per tonne, while muriate of potash (MOP) increased to USD 380.6 per tonne from USD 372.5 per tonne in February. The institution’s fertilizer price index has climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter of 2025.

The World Bank forecasts urea prices to increase nearly 60% on average in 2026 before easing in 2027 as Middle Eastern exports recover and natural gas prices moderate. DAP prices are projected to rise about 6% this year before declining roughly 10% in 2027 as new production capacity enters the market, while MOP prices are expected to gain around 12% in 2026 before falling about 6% next year. The report said the current price shock has been moderated by pre-season fertilizer purchases in the Northern Hemisphere, less severe natural gas price increases than during the 2021–22 energy crisis, and the rerouting of some Middle Eastern exports through overland corridors. However, it warned that risks remain tilted to the upside if the Strait of Hormuz disruption extends beyond June or if China tightens fertilizer export restrictions further. The World Bank identified Sub-Saharan Africa as the region most vulnerable to prolonged high fertilizer prices because of chronically low fertilizer use and limited fiscal capacity to support farmers.

Source: World Bank