U.S. fertilizer prices pause 13-week rise for first time since February; all 8 products still well above year-ago levels

The primary driver was the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began February 28, 2026, which closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The Middle East accounts for approximately 35% of globally traded urea and a significant share of ammonia exports. The closure severed supply routes overnight, sending urea prices up roughly 50% and ammonia prices up around 20% within weeks, according to Oxford Economics data cited by CNBC. China then restricted fertilizer exports to protect domestic supply, compounding the tightening.

The pause does not indicate a meaningful price retreat — all eight fertilizer products remain at elevated levels, with urea 37% and anhydrous 45% above year-ago values. It signals that post-Hormuz panic buying has subsided and that Brazilian import demand is acting as a price ceiling, since Brazilian farmers cannot afford to match the prices Indian buyers are paying under India’s government subsidy program. A sustained price decline would require either a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or a large-scale return of Chinese exports, neither of which is imminent.

DTN’s Progressive Farmer gathers weekly fertilizer price bids from agricultural retailers across the United States and aggregates them into the DTN Fertilizer Index. The index tracks eight major products: DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous ammonia, UAN28, and UAN32. DTN first began reporting this data in November 2008. A “significant move” is defined as a weekly change of 5% or more in either direction.

China is the world’s largest urea producer and, in normal years, a major exporter. The Chinese government imposed a urea export ban in December 2025 and has not issued any export licenses in 2026. Analysts had anticipated China would return to the market by April or May, but that has not happened. Argus Media analysts said that if and when Chinese urea returns, it would have “serious ramifications on price direction for the rest of the year” — in either direction depending on how quickly and in what volume exports resume.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced on May 19 that USDA is reestablishing a full-time crop inputs economist within the Office of the Chief Economist, a position that had been dispersed across multiple roles and gradually reduced in priority over prior years. The position will be dedicated to tracking fertilizer and input costs and improving market transparency for U.S. farmers. Rollins also announced the revival of the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program to boost domestic nitrogen production capacity and the accelerated permitting of a major CF Industries low-carbon ammonia project in Louisiana.