U.S. tomato prices hit a 45-year high affected by weather, trade policy and supply chain pressures

U.S. consumers are paying the highest tomato prices in more than 45 years after multiple supply-side disruptions struck the North American produce market simultaneously. Retail tomato prices have climbed to an average of $2.69 per pound, about 40% higher than a year earlier, reflecting a combination of adverse weather, higher logistics costs, labor shortages, and changing trade policy.

Unlike many agricultural commodities, fresh tomatoes move through highly time-sensitive supply chains, leaving little opportunity to build inventories when production falls. Because Mexico supplies roughly 70% of the fresh tomatoes consumed in the United States, disruptions south of the border are quickly transmitted to U.S. wholesalers, retailers, restaurants, and ultimately consumers.

Weather delivered the initial shock

Most experts identify weather as the primary trigger behind the recent price spike.

Extreme weather damaged tomato crops across key Mexican growing regions, causing local tomato prices inflation to exceed 100% during the first four months of the year and sharply reducing export supplies available for the U.S. market. Because tomatoes are highly perishable, even short-lived production losses rapidly tighten supply.

Eran Mizrahi, founder and CEO of Source86, said weather disruptions typically become visible throughout the supply chain within days or weeks.

“Fresh produce supply chains tend to move quickly. In some cases, disruptions may begin affecting availability and procurement costs within days or weeks,” Mizrahi said. “Importers, distributors, and retailers could experience the greatest pressure initially as they compete for available supply.”

Weather problems were not confined to Mexico. Craig Elliott, a market reporter at Expana, noted that frost events in Florida earlier in the year also reduced domestic production, further tightening supplies amid elevated demand, thereby affecting tomato prices.

According to Elliott, the market remains highly sensitive to weather disruptions because domestic production alone cannot fully compensate for interruptions in Mexican shipments.

Heavy dependence on Mexico amplifies market volatility

The current price surge has also highlighted how dependent the U.S. fresh tomato market has become on Mexican production.

While cross-border agricultural relationships allow consumers to enjoy year-round supplies, they also concentrate risk in a single sourcing region. Any disruption—from hurricanes and droughts to labor shortages or infrastructure problems—can ripple quickly through the entire North American food system, affecting produce pricing, including the tomatoes.

“When a company relies too heavily on a single region for its supply, it might expose the company or its supply chain to risks,” Mizrahi said. While companies can diversify suppliers, he noted that alternative sources often cannot provide the same volumes, quality, or pricing as established production regions.

Javier Palomarez, founder and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council, said the tomato market illustrates how deeply integrated North American agriculture has become.

“The United States relies heavily on Mexican tomato production, particularly during key parts of the growing season. This means something as unavoidable as weather disruptions in Mexico do not stay in Mexico. If crops get damaged, yields decline and supply takes a hit. This translates into American consumers seeing the effects almost immediately at the grocery store.”

Tariffs added another layer of price pressure

Although weather triggered much of the supply disruption, recent trade policy has also contributed to higher prices.

Craig Elliott said U.S. tomato prices accelerated after the Trump administration withdrew from the 1996 U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement and imposed a 17% tariff on Mexican tomato imports in July 2025. Since Mexico accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. fresh tomato consumption, the tariff increased costs throughout the supply chain.

According to Elliott, USDA market data showed plum tomato prices rising by more than 200% year over year in April. Although prices have eased from those peaks, they remained roughly 50% above year-earlier levels by mid-June.

The tariff’s effects have coincided with weather-related production losses, making it difficult to separate the contribution of each factor to soaring tomato prices. Together, however, they have reduced available supply while increasing procurement costs for importers and retailers.

Transportation, labor and operating costs continue to rise

Beyond weather and trade, growers and distributors continue to face rising production and logistics expenses.

Palomarez said businesses throughout the food supply chain are absorbing higher costs for transportation, diesel fuel, fertilizer, packaging, refrigeration, insurance, and labor. All of this is inevitably reflected in the retail prices of tomatoes and other vegetables on the shelf.

“Businesses report transportation-related costs increasing by 400% or more, leaving every part of the supply chain scrambling to determine who can absorb those increases, from the farmer all the way to the consumer standing in the grocery store,” he said.

He added that labor shortages remain another important challenge for agriculture, particularly in labor-intensive fruit and vegetable production, where workforce availability directly affects harvesting capacity. Combined with higher fuel costs and broader supply chain disruptions, these factors have amplified price increases throughout the produce sector.

Businesses are shifting toward more resilient supply chains

The recent volatility is prompting retailers, distributors, and food-service companies to rethink procurement strategies.

Mizrahi said businesses are increasingly focusing on supplier diversification, stronger supplier relationships, better inventory visibility, and contingency planning rather than pursuing the lowest purchase price alone.

“Many businesses appear to be placing greater emphasis on supply chain resilience and risk management,” he said, adding that supplier reliability and operational stability are becoming as important as cost when evaluating procurement decisions.

However, experts caution that diversification has practical limits. Alternative production regions may not be able to replace Mexican volumes or match their production economics, particularly during winter months when domestic U.S. output is limited.

More frequent produce price spikes may become the new normal

While tomato prices are expected to moderate as growing conditions improve, several experts believe the underlying drivers of volatility are becoming structural rather than temporary.

Mizrahi described the current situation as “a combination of both” a short-term supply shock and broader long-term trends, including climate variability, labor availability, transportation challenges, and evolving trade dynamics.

Palomarez offered a similar assessment, warning that consumers should not view tomatoes as an isolated case.

“Extreme weather, labor shortages, transportation costs, and supply chain volatility are becoming recurring features of the food economy,” he said. “Unless those underlying pressures ease, price spikes are likely to become more common across a wide range of fresh produce and food products.”

For policymakers and food businesses, the recent market disruption underscores the importance of strengthening agricultural resilience through investments in infrastructure, logistics, climate adaptation, and diversified sourcing. While such measures cannot eliminate supply shocks, experts say they can help reduce their frequency and lessen their impact on consumers.