CoBank warns higher fertilizer prices are structural as phosphate capacity forecast drops 13%

Higher fertilizer prices are structural rather than cyclical, and growers should plan for an extended period of elevated input costs, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division. The analysis, published in August, focuses on phosphate markets and warns that global phosphate production capacity is forecast to drop 13% from pre-crisis levels due to damaged infrastructure, prolonged outages, and raw material shortages that cannot be resolved quickly.

The report identifies three reinforcing factors behind the structural price shift. First, the sulfur supply crisis triggered by the Strait of Hormuz disruption has removed a critical raw material from global markets, raising phosphoric acid production costs across every major producing region. Second, Russia’s ban on sulfur exports has compounded the shortage, leaving phosphate producers in North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia competing for a sharply reduced pool of available sulfur. Third, capacity additions that were expected to offset the losses — primarily in Morocco and Saudi Arabia — face their own timeline risks and will not fully compensate before 2028 at the earliest.

For U.S. farmers, the implication is that phosphate application cutbacks already underway this fall could extend into 2027 and beyond. CoBank said the price environment creates an opening for precision nutrient management, soil testing, and alternative phosphorus sources — but cautioned that no substitute can fully replace conventional phosphate fertilizer at a commercial scale.