USDA September WASDE cuts corn yield 2.2 bu/acre to 178.5 as all 6 crop numbers beat trade estimates
USDA’s September WASDE report, released September 11, lowered the 2026 U.S. corn yield estimate by 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5 and trimmed production by 213 million bushels to 15.800 billion, confirming what field-level data had suggested for weeks. The cut was smaller than the 178.1 bu/acre the trade had anticipated, however, and every headline number across corn and soybeans landed above consensus, according to pre-report surveys from DTN/Dow Jones and Reuters.
Corn ending stocks for 2026/27 fell to 1.567 billion bushels from August’s 1.653 billion, yet still exceeded the 1.533 billion the market had penciled. USDA offset roughly 70% of the production decline by cutting feed and residual use by 150 million bushels — a standard adjustment when a smaller crop reduces the residual component.
On soybeans, USDA moved in the opposite direction from expectations. Yield rose to 52.8 bu/acre from 52.7, while the trade had expected a cut to 52.5. Production climbed to 4.535 billion bushels, 34 million above the consensus, and ending stocks settled at 310 million bushels — above both the DTN/Dow Jones estimate of 290 million and the Reuters figure of 298 million. USDA also raised soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 1.685 billion.
The report carried direct implications for fertilizer demand heading into the fall application window. A smaller corn crop typically signals reduced residual nitrogen uptake, while the shift toward soybeans — which fix their own nitrogen — could moderate fall anhydrous ammonia demand in some regions.
USDA raised its corn season-average farm price forecast to $4.80/bu from $4.50 and the soybean estimate to $12.00/bu from $11.40. Wheat balance sheets were unchanged domestically, though world wheat ending stocks surprised higher at 276.29 million metric tons versus 273.0 expected. The next major checkpoint is the September 30 Grain Stocks report, followed by the October 9 WASDE.
Source: Ag Optimus
What to know about the September 2026 WASDE report
USDA lowered its corn yield estimate by 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5, down from 180.7 in August. The reduction trimmed production by 213 million bushels to 15.800 billion. The Pro Farmer crop tour had estimated 173.2 bu/acre in August, and the gap between USDA and the tour has now narrowed from 7.5 to 5.3 bushels per acre.
USDA cut feed and residual use by 150 million bushels, absorbing about 70% of the production decline on the demand side. Corn ending stocks fell 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion rather than the 120-plus million the market had expected. That single demand-side adjustment is the reason a confirmed supply cut still read looser than consensus.
USDA raised soybean yield to 52.8 bu/acre from 52.7 when the trade expected a cut to 52.5. Production rose to 4.535 billion bushels, 34 million above consensus. Ending stocks of 310 million bushels exceeded both the DTN/Dow Jones estimate (290 million) and Reuters (298 million), leaving stocks-to-use near 6.8%.
A smaller corn crop with lower feed and residual use implies somewhat reduced nitrogen uptake. The shift in planted acreage toward soybeans, which fix their own nitrogen, could moderate fall anhydrous ammonia demand in certain Corn Belt regions. The extent depends on how the actual corn-to-soybean acreage shift plays out during 2027 planting decisions.
The September 30 Grain Stocks report will provide the first inventory data for the marketing year. The October WASDE and Crop Production reports follow on October 9. NOPA crush data lands mid-month for soybeans. Weekly Crop Progress reports continue on Mondays through harvest.
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