Helios AI’s Hunger Exposure Index reveals 130 million people at risk

Commodity intelligence platform Helios AI has raised $3 million from W23 Global, a venture fund backed by retailers including Ahold Delhaize, Tesco and Woolworths Group, to expand its Hunger Exposure Index (HEI), a 0-to-100 score that rates countries’ vulnerability to food-security crises, the company said. Scores above 70 signal a country is critically exposed to hunger; scores between 50 and 69 indicate elevated risk.

The index weighs climate risk, fertilizer and energy exposure tied to Persian Gulf supply routes, foreign-exchange constraints and cereal-import dependence, rather than production volumes alone. Helios AI co-founder and CEO Francisco Martin-Rayo said countries with strong import cover — the number of months a country can pay for imports from reserves — can appear resilient even amid domestic instability, citing Nigeria’s fertilizer-exporting status as an example distinct from more import-dependent countries such as Sudan, Malawi and Zimbabwe.

Helios AI said Strait of Hormuz fertilizer and energy disruptions did not push U.S. food inflation into double digits as the model initially projected, with the consumer price index rising 3.4% in August, crediting record Brazilian corn production, Chinese nitrogen export relief and Saudi rerouting through the Red Sea as one-off mitigants. The company estimates 130 million people across six critical countries remain exposed heading into 2027, warning that El Niño-driven drought in Africa and diminishing one-off supply relief could widen the gap between food availability and affordability.

Source: AgNavigator

Understanding the Hunger Exposure Index