EU pesticide residue proposal could cut agricultural imports by 41%, JRC study finds

EU agricultural imports could fall by as much as 41% if the European Union reduces maximum residue levels (MRLs) for 18 pesticide substances to the limit of quantification (LOQ), according to a study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). The analysis, released on Aug. 11, examines the potential economic impact of provisions under the proposed Food and Feed Omnibus that would effectively prevent imported food and feed products containing residues of the affected substances from entering the EU market. The study covers 235 commodities and 86 exporting countries, with about 10,583 substance-commodity-country combinations identified as potentially affected.

The JRC modeled three scenarios based on the ability of exporters to adapt. Under the most severe “no adaptation” scenario, EU agricultural imports would decline 41%, with citrus imports falling 92% and soybean imports 90%. The intermediate scenario projects an 8% decline in imports, while the lower-bound scenario estimates a 0.4% reduction. The United States could have about $16 billion of agricultural exports affected by the proposed changes, representing roughly 30% of EU agricultural imports in the categories examined.

The measures could also increase EU production and consumer prices. In the no-adaptation scenario, EU crop production would rise 1.1%, while farmland use would expand by 1.9 million hectares. Citrus production could increase 47%, rapeseed 41% and soybeans 29%. Consumer prices could rise sharply for some products, including coffee, which the study estimates could become 332% more expensive, while soybean cake prices could rise 105% and citrus prices 85%.

The JRC also found that the EU is not self-sufficient in 29 of the affected commodities and could need to source replacement supplies at costs 2% to 9% higher. Figs, almonds, hazelnuts and beans were identified as among the most difficult products to replace. The report noted that exporters able to redirect products to other markets could largely maintain production, although they might have to accept lower prices.

The study, however, is not a formal impact assessment and does not predict the outcome of the proposed legislation. The JRC said its modeling uses uniform assumptions across substances, commodities and countries because of gaps in detailed data, and does not account for potential transition periods or the environmental and social effects of pesticide restrictions. The European Commission’s regulatory proposal remains under discussion in the European Parliament and Council and would require a separate impact assessment before final regulatory changes are adopted.

Sources: European Commission Joint Research Centre study