Belarus potash for U.S. faces key limits as first 30,000 t cargo heads to New Orleans

Belarus potash is heading back to the United States, but not on the scale President Donald Trump suggested. After Trump said on September 21 that Washington was working on a “massive” deal to buy cheaper potash from Belarus, Minsk and market analysts signaled that volumes will stay limited, RFE/RL reported.

Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko said on September 21 that the country has no spare volumes for new Western markets because everything is already contracted. About 27% of Belarus’s potash trade goes to China, with Brazil and India among other key buyers. Belarus produced some 6 million tonnes of potash in 2025, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Some product is moving. Argus reported that a 30,000 tonne cargo, the first Belarusian fertilizer shipment to the U.S. in four years, is due in New Orleans next month. Before sanctions, Belarus covered about 5% of U.S. potash needs, while Canada supplied 79% of U.S. imports from 2021 to 2024, USGS data show.

Logistics are the main barrier. The EU has not lifted its own sanctions, and Lithuania has said it sees no reason to reopen Klaipeda to Belarusian potash, leaving Russian rail and ports as the main export route. Russian terminals are already busy with grain, coal and Russia’s own potash. StoneX analyst Josh Linville told Reuters the U.S. has not struggled to find potash. Analyst Andrei Makhovsky added that Belaruskali mainly produces pink potash, while U.S. buyers mostly use white.

Canada’s rail-based supply advantage remains intact, a factor Fertilizer Daily examined as the U.S.-Canada trade war threatened potash flows. With the U.S. still 92% reliant on imported potash, the October arrival will test whether Belarusian cargoes can compete on delivered cost.

Source: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty