Trump wants to increase U.S. fertilizer production aiming at 30% nitrogen boost, 100% potash expansion and 200% phosphate growth

The Trump administration unveiled a sweeping multi-agency fertilizer initiative on April 29, setting targets to expand US nitrogen production capacity by 30%, domestic potash output by more than 100%, and domestic phosphate capacity by 200% over the next one to two years.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the plan at a press conference in Washington alongside cabinet officials from the EPA, Department of Energy, Department of Commerce, and Department of the Interior, plus White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett. The rollout came after Rollins flagged the initiative at a Missouri farm visit the prior Friday, where she told producers that urea prices had risen 50% and ammonia was up more than 30% since the Iran conflict began in late February.

Immediate measures already in place

Several short-term steps are already operational. The administration extended its waiver of the Jones Act — a maritime law that requires goods shipped between US ports to travel on US-flagged vessels — by an additional 60 days, giving fertilizer distributors more flexibility to move product between domestic ports. The Treasury Department separately waived certain restrictions on US entities purchasing petrochemicals, including fertilizer, from Venezuela; one anticipated shipment is expected to fill roughly 57% of the US urea supply gap for the April–June period, according to administration officials.

In September 2025, USDA signed a memorandum of understanding with the Department of Justice to strengthen antitrust enforcement in agricultural input markets. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said at the April 29 press conference that two companies currently control roughly 90% of key fertilizer inputs and that DOJ and the Federal Trade Commission are both actively issuing questions to fertilizer companies and examining pricing practices. “It’s public knowledge they are investigating the fertilizer markets,” Vaden said.

Longer-term capacity investment

On the supply side, Rollins announced that fertilizer projects investing over $1bn in US infrastructure may be eligible for assistance from the Department of Commerce’s investment accelerator, which oversees $750bn in available financing. The Department of Energy’s energy dominance financing program has already provided a $1.5bn loan for an Indiana ammonia project. EPA, Commerce, the Department of the Interior, and the Army Corps of Engineers are also accelerating permitting for fertilizer plant construction, with Rollins describing a goal of compressing timelines from years to “weeks or perhaps months.”

The administration identified several fertilizer plants already under construction or awaiting permits that could be accelerated through federal stimulus. Natural gas — the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer — is abundant domestically, and Rollins argued that this gives the US a structural advantage. “We are flush with liquid natural gas,” she said, “and that is going to help spur more long-term production.”

Rollins also confirmed that USDA will deploy a $900mn Rural Development fund — created under the Biden administration — for fertilizer projects, though she said more work is needed to accelerate the timelines of the $700mn already committed.

Industry backdrop: structural vulnerability on display

The announcement reflects years of concern about US reliance on foreign fertilizer supply. The Strait of Hormuz closure — which has disrupted roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizers since late February — has exposed a concentrated supply chain: the Gulf region accounts for nearly half of global urea exports and around 30% of ammonia. US farmers, who typically pre-book fertilizer well in advance, found themselves exposed to spot market price spikes at the worst possible time in the planting calendar.

A survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, conducted April 3–11, found that approximately 70% of responding farmers could not afford all the fertilizer they needed for the 2026 season. Southern producers were most exposed — 78% reported being unable to afford full inputs — compared to 48% in the Midwest, where higher pre-booking rates offered more protection.

Anhydrous ammonia prices climbed above $1,100 per ton at the end of April, roughly 30% higher than at the end of February, according to DTN’s weekly retail fertilizer trends report. Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, noted that gas plants in Qatar and Iran supplying nitrogen production facilities have sustained damage from missile and drone strikes, meaning the supply recovery will be measured in months, not weeks. “Once we get that going, we’ve got to get liquified natural gas production back up and running, and once that starts getting to the fertilizer plant, we’ve got to restart the fertilizer,” he said.

What to watch next

The capacity targets — 30% nitrogen expansion, 100% potash doubling, 200% phosphate growth — are aspirational without named projects or funding commitments attached. Washington analyst Jim Wiesemeyer said the plan would likely need grants, tax incentives, and loan guarantees beyond existing USDA programs to be effective, while noting that imports will still be essential, particularly for potash from Canada. The DOJ and FTC investigations into fertilizer pricing represent an additional policy lever that could, over time, affect how companies set prices — but enforcement timelines in antitrust cases are typically measured in years.