Urea drops 19% from monthly peak but remains 22% above year-ago levels

Global urea prices have pulled back sharply from their March highs, with benchmark spot values falling roughly 19% from their monthly peak — though the commodity remains more than 21% above year-ago levels as Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions continue to underpin pricing.

As of May 15, urea was trading at approximately $577 per tonne, according to Trading Economics data, down from a peak of around $714 per tonne reached earlier in the cycle following the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February. The pullback reflects a combination of demand-side resistance from buyers unwilling to commit at elevated prices, as well as some marginal improvement in supply availability from alternative origins including the former Soviet Union and non-Gulf Middle Eastern exporters.

Despite the correction, prices remain structurally elevated compared to 2025 levels, with year-on-year increases of approximately 22% continuing to weigh on farm input budgets globally.

U.S. Retail Fertilizer Prices (USDA, May 15, 2026)

• Anhydrous ammonia: $1,123.50/t average
• MAP (11-52-0): $1,120.47/t
• Potash (Red): $659/t
• UAN (32-0-0): $800/t

The USDA’s weekly retail survey confirms that the Hormuz-driven price shock has translated fully into U.S. domestic fertilizer markets, with anhydrous ammonia and MAP both exceeding $1,100 per tonne — levels not seen in several years.

Market participants have noted that the recent urea correction does not necessarily signal a sustained downtrend. With the Hormuz blockade still in place, a significant portion of global nitrogen fertilizer production in the Gulf remains impaired, and any seasonal demand uptick — particularly from Southern Hemisphere buyers entering their planting windows later this year — could rapidly reverse the current softening.

Source: Trading Economics / USDA