Mexico’s tomato production set to fall 9% in 2026 as U.S. duties and weather pressures weigh on growers

Mexico’s tomato production is forecast to decline 9% year over year to 2.55 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026, extending a downward trend that began in 2023 as growers grapple with U.S. antidumping duties, reduced profitability, and adverse weather conditions, according to a new report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Planted area is expected to fall 11% to 38,000 hectares as producers scale back operations and increasingly shift from open-field cultivation to protected agriculture systems such as greenhouses and shade houses.

The report identifies the 17.09% antidumping duty imposed by the United States on most Mexican fresh tomato imports in July 2025 as a major factor behind the industry’s challenges. Combined with the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, the duty has compressed margins for exporters, many of whom sell into the U.S. market under contracts denominated in dollars. Industry sources cited in the report said the pressures have contributed to market consolidation and prompted some growers to switch to alternative crops.

Weather remains another key concern. While rainfall in early 2026 helped replenish water supplies following severe drought conditions in 2025, growers remain wary of potential weather disruptions linked to a possible Super El Niño event. Excessive humidity and cloud cover during critical growing periods could increase the risk of fungal and bacterial diseases, reducing yields and limiting exportable supplies.

Lower production is expected to reduce Mexican tomato exports by about 7% to 1.8 MMT in 2026. The United States will remain by far the largest destination, accounting for more than 90% of Mexico’s export shipments, despite the continued trade dispute. In 2025, Mexican tomato exports to the U.S. fell 7% to 1.8 MMT amid drought-related production losses, the antidumping duty, and stronger domestic demand.

Domestic market conditions have also tightened. Reduced acreage and lower export-oriented production have contributed to sharp price increases across Mexico, with tomato prices rising by more than 100% year over year in 20 states as of April 2026. As a result, domestic tomato consumption is forecast to decline 14% to 707,000 metric tons, particularly among lower-income consumers.