NOLA urea prices drop 55% from April peak as Hormuz ceasefire and renewed Chinese exports reshape the market

On June 22, urea barge prices at New Orleans (NOLA) fell to USD 350 per tonne, a decline of over 55% from the USD 782 peak during the U.S.-Iran conflict in April. The ceasefire reopened the Strait of Hormuz, reversing the global nitrogen market trend. Prices also dropped below the USD 455-470 per tonne range recorded on February 27, before hostilities began.

The decline followed a 60-day ceasefire that restored commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Middle Eastern fertilizer exports. Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, noted that about 200,000 metric tonnes of urea have moved through the waterway since the agreement began. “It’s a step in the right direction that has got any long position running for the hills trying to get rid of their stuff,” Linville said. The selloff has accelerated with China’s return to the export market, increasing supply as seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere reaches its lowest point.

Urea futures tracked by Trading Economics fell to USD 359 per tonne on June 18, down 37% from the previous month and nearly 17% below last year’s level. This decline reverses the rally that pushed fertilizer prices to multi-year highs in early 2026. As the Middle East supplies about one-third of the global urea trade, resumed exports have significantly improved availability. Market participants are now monitoring the timing and volume of India’s next urea import tender, which is expected to set a price floor before the Northern Hemisphere fall application season.

Source: The Western Producer