Pakistan’s DAP inventories stabilize as weak demand offsets import halt

Pakistan’s diammonium phosphate (DAP) inventories increased in May, despite a second month without imports. Weak farmer demand outweighed ongoing consumption, according to Argus Media assessments based on National Fertilizer Development Centre data.

DAP demand reached 61,000 tonnes in May, significantly below the five-year seasonal average of 94,000 tonnes. Domestic production remained stable at 78,000 tonnes, resulting in a slight surplus despite no imports. Fertilizer distributors expect demand to stay low as farmers prioritize nitrogen fertilizers and shift to lower-cost phosphate alternatives, such as single superphosphate and NP blends.

Domestic DAP prices have risen by about 1,581 Pakistani rupees per 50-kilogram bag since early 2026, equivalent to approximately USD 114 per tonne at current exchange rates. This increase followed supply disruptions after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which cut off Pakistan’s main import route for Gulf-produced phosphate fertilizers.

International DAP prices have declined since the June 15 U.S.-Iran peace agreement restored shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Argus assessed DAP at USD 925-950 per tonne CFR Pakistan, down from over USD 1,000 per tonne at the conflict’s peak. Although global prices remain high by historical standards, Pakistani importers are delaying purchases, anticipating further price declines as regional logistics improve.

Without new imports, Pakistan’s inventories could drop to around 61,000 tonnes by the start of the October-March rabi planting season, compared to a five-year average opening stock of about 335,000 tonnes. This shortfall would likely force the country back into the spot market in the third quarter. Analysts expect several import cargoes to be secured before October, regardless of price, to ensure adequate wheat supplies.

Source: Argus Media