Urea futures drop 22% in a month to $366 as Hormuz ceasefire and China’s return reshape nitrogen markets

Urea futures fell to $366.50 per tonne on June 26, down 22% from the prior month and 7.8% below year-ago levels, as the combination of a Strait of Hormuz ceasefire and China’s return to global export markets removed two of the key supply constraints that had driven prices to near-record highs earlier in 2026.

The correction is sharp by historical standards. Urea had reached approximately $950 per tonne CFR India in April — near its highest level since 2022 — as the Hormuz closure cut off the Persian Gulf’s roughly one-third share of globally traded urea. The June 15 interim U.S.-Iran peace deal and China’s resumption of export quotas have since knocked nearly 60% off that peak in futures markets.

India’s NFL tender, which attracted bids of $444–449 per tonne CFR when it opened on June 8 — roughly half the April level — served as a clear pricing benchmark for the correction. That tender drew 6.25 million tonnes of offers against a 1.7 million tonne ask, confirming abundant global supply had returned despite the Hormuz situation not fully resolving.

StoneX analyst Josh Linville, who had forecast further declines even before the ceasefire, told AgWeb that the near-term path hinges on China’s export pace and on when fall demand from the U.S. and other buyers begins to compete for available tonnage. “The second you say prices can’t come down, the market will humble you,” Linville said — but he has also warned that retail prices in the United States remain well above global benchmarks as distribution-chain inventory turns over slowly.

Phosphate prices have held firmer than nitrogen, with DAP assessed at $925–950 per tonne CFR Pakistan as of late June, sustained by tighter sulphur supply and the slower pace of Hormuz normalization for phosphate raw materials. The nitrogen-phosphate price divergence is one of the more striking features of the current market: urea has corrected while DAP remains roughly 28% above pre-conflict levels.

Source: Trading Economics / StoneX