U.S. potash prices face 2027 squeeze risk from Belarus deal and BHP’s key Jansen mine

U.S. potash prices could come under pressure in the coming years as Washington courts Belarusian supply and BHP prepares to start mining in Saskatchewan, industry analysts told Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) in a report published on Oct. 1, 2026. The combination could push Canada’s two dominant producers, Nutrien and Mosaic, to accept lower margins on their U.S. sales.

Canadian potash output is concentrated in Nutrien and Mosaic, which mine in Saskatchewan and ship directly south by rail. That location, together with strong U.S. demand, gives both companies healthy margins on U.S. sales, C&EN reported. Analysts told the magazine that a U.S.-Belarus deal and, perhaps more importantly, the arrival of a new producer in Canada could lead both companies to cut U.S. prices. BHP plans to begin production next year. C&EN added that it is nearly impossible for the United States to eliminate Canadian imports.

President Donald Trump said on Sept. 21 that the United States was working on a “massive” deal to buy potash from Belarus instead of Canada. Nutrien shares fell 3.3% and Mosaic shares 1.4% that day, The Northern Miner reported. RBC analyst Andrew Wong said in a note that the effect on realized prices would be moderate unless Belarusian potash displaced Canadian product in significant quantities.

The near-term volume is small. The first cargo, about 30,000 metric tons, is due in New Orleans in October, and Belarusian supply faces logistical and contractual limits. The larger test for U.S. potash prices is the ramp-up of BHP’s Jansen mine, a project The Northern Miner put at $15.3 billion. Buyers will watch the first Belarusian arrival and BHP’s start-up schedule for signs of how quickly competition builds.

Sources: Chemical & Engineering News, The Northern Miner