Urea eases to $443/t as Hormuz negotiations and China’s export surge quiet global supply fears

Global urea prices fell to $443 per metric ton on September 4, easing 0.06% on the day as signs of progress in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and China’s return to the export market reduced supply anxiety. The benchmark is up 13.6% over the past month and 13.2% year-on-year, according to Trading Economics.

China’s decision to relax urea export restrictions has been the primary catalyst for the pullback. Beijing has expanded its 2026 export allowance to roughly 5–5.5 million tonnes, and July shipments jumped to approximately 403,000 tonnes from just 7,000 tonnes in June. The India RCF tender absorbed 1.78 million tonnes at prices below $400 per tonne, reinforcing the easing trend.

Seasonal factors are also weighing on the market. Northern Hemisphere planting has largely concluded, and Brazil, one of the world’s largest fertilizer importers, has postponed purchases and imported less urea than a year earlier. European production economics remain strained, with Dutch TTF gas above €66.50 per megawatt-hour, placing break-even costs for an efficient European urea plant near $605 per tonne ex-works.

The market outlook hinges on the pace of Hormuz diplomacy, Brazil’s return to active buying and the size of China’s remaining export quota.

Source: Trading Economics