Urea climbs to $453 per tonne as tight granular supply lifts Profercy nitrogen index 6 points

Global urea prices climbed to $453 per metric ton on September 14, extending a rebound that has reversed much of the summer’s correction from the April peak above $700. Profercy’s Nitrogen Index gained 6.3 points over the week ending September 8, returning to levels last seen in July and signaling a shift from the relatively steady urea market observed in early September.

The urea price recovery has been most pronounced in western markets, where tight granular supply and active purchasing in Latin America are driving offers higher. Offers in Brazil have climbed above $460 per tonne CFR, roughly $20 above the previous week’s high. Active buying has also been reported in Mexico, Argentina and Chile, with deals concluded in the high-$400s CFR, according to Profercy data compiled by UkrAgroConsult.

The benchmark is now up approximately 18% over the past month and nearly 14% year-on-year, according to Trading Economics. Higher European natural gas prices are adding a floor under production costs in the region, while China’s 2026 urea export quota of 3.3 million tonnes — down from roughly 5 million tonnes shipped in 2025 — continues to restrict the volume of fresh supply reaching the seaborne market.

India’s next procurement tender, expected through RCF by late September, could put further upward pressure if bidding exceeds current levels. The return of Latin American demand has tightened the physical balance faster than many traders expected heading into the Northern Hemisphere’s fall application window.