Fertilizer market enters autumn with urea steady, phosphate tight and potash demand flat

Global fertilizer markets are heading into autumn with mixed signals across the three major nutrient segments, according to the latest BINFIELD market overview published August 31. Urea has stabilized near $409 per metric ton FOB on the back of fresh Indian tender activity and a slight easing in Chinese export restrictions, while phosphate prices remain elevated by persistent raw material constraints. Potash demand continues to lag seasonal expectations.

In nitrogen, urea’s recent rebound to $409/t reflected renewed buying from India’s state procurement agencies and indications that Beijing may loosen its informal export quotas. However, the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to add a supply-risk premium, and Middle Eastern producers remain unable to ship freely through the Persian Gulf. Ammonia prices have softened modestly but stay well above pre-crisis levels.

Phosphate markets face the tightest fundamentals. Sulfur costs — a key input for phosphoric acid — have surged past $1,000 per metric ton as Hormuz transit restrictions and Russia’s sulfur export ban removed roughly two-thirds of global traded supply. DAP prices reflect the squeeze, and analysts see limited downside through year-end. In potash, MOP demand in Southeast Asia and Latin America has been sluggish, with buyers resisting price increases and working down existing inventories ahead of Q4. Producers including Belaruskali and Canpotex have held offers steady but face pressure to stimulate volume.

Source: UkrAgroConsult