EU Q1 2026 ammonia imports plunge 42% year-on-year as Middle East crisis and CBAM reshape nitrogen trade flows

EU ammonia imports fell 42% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off Middle Eastern supply routes and the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) began reshaping trade flows, according to trade data cited by Quantum Commodity Intelligence.

The drop marks a sharp reversal from 2025 when European buyers had been front-loading ammonia imports ahead of CBAM’s transition to its definitive phase in January 2026. CBAM requires importers to purchase certificates based on the embedded carbon emissions of ammonia and other nitrogen-intensive goods, effectively raising the cost of carbon-intensive supply from producers outside the EU ETS framework. In Q1 2026, buyers steered away from U.S.-origin ammonia in particular, given the higher carbon footprint associated with natural-gas-based U.S. production relative to other sources.

The Hormuz closure compounded the drop. The Middle East — which accounts for roughly 20–30% of global ammonia trade — has been largely cut off as a source of delivered product for European buyers since late February. Freight insurance premiums for vessels transiting conflict zones have risen sharply, making Persian Gulf ammonia prohibitively expensive even when physical supply is available.

India’s March ammonia imports fell 61% month-on-month over the same period, and IPL’s May consortium tender attracted offers for less than half the volume sought, pointing to a structural tightening of global spot ammonia supply that is simultaneously affecting European and Asian buyers. Northwest Europe ammonia prices were supported in the week of May 19 by a 3.5% uptick in June TTF natural gas prices.

The European Commission’s Fertilizer Action Plan, adopted May 19, includes measures to diversify EU ammonia supply and establish green ammonia corridors with Africa and the Middle East over the medium term, but offers no immediate relief for the supply shortfall.

Source: QCIntel