University of Illinois study finds fertilizer industry consolidation is a key hidden driver of high prices

A University of Illinois study points to decades of industry consolidation as a structural driver behind persistently high fertilizer prices, adding an analytical dimension to the political and legal scrutiny facing major producers. The number of nitrogen fertilizer producers in the United States fell from 46 to 13 between 1984 and 2008, a 72% decline, according to USDA data cited in the research.

Today, four companies control roughly 75% of the domestic nitrogen fertilizer market. The concentration gives producers significant pricing power, a concern echoed by USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden, who has publicly described North American producers as a “duopoly.”

The finding arrives as the DOJ antitrust division is actively investigating Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch and Yara for possible pricing violations. Two separate class-action lawsuits have been filed by farm plaintiffs accusing the same companies of coordinating production cuts to inflate prices.

The study suggests that while geopolitical supply shocks and energy costs explain cyclical price spikes, the underlying market structure amplifies their impact and slows price recovery. For growers already facing a 15.3% increase in fertilizer expenses in 2026, the consolidation dynamic adds a layer of cost pressure that supply normalization alone may not resolve.

Source: Farmdoc Daily