Tampa ammonia price drops to $555/t in September — 4th straight monthly decline from $825 peak

The Tampa ammonia benchmark contract settled at $555 per metric ton CFR for September, down $80 per metric ton from August and marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline from May’s $825 peak. The $270-per-metric-ton retreat over four months represents a 33% correction and is the steepest sustained Tampa ammonia price decline since the post-2022 pullback.

The contract has fallen in every month since reaching its cycle high in May, when the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz conflict disrupted Middle Eastern ammonia exports and triggered a global nitrogen supply scare. The trajectory since then — $825 in May, $720 in June, $670 in July, $635 in August, and now $555 in September — reflects the progressive easing of supply-side panic as alternative sources entered the market.

Key factors driving the correction include China’s decision in June to release urea export quotas, which relieved pressure on East Asian nitrogen markets, and the Iran-Oman agreement on Hormuz safe shipping route coordinates, which gave some operators a tentative framework for resuming transit. Trinidad and Tobago ammonia plants also ran at higher utilization rates through August, adding Atlantic Basin supply.

The Tampa ammonia price nonetheless remains elevated by historical standards. The September $555 level is approximately 15% above the pre-crisis baseline of roughly $480 per metric ton that prevailed in early 2026 and well above the $300–$400 range that characterized 2023–2024.

Source: Australian Fertilizer Corp