AFBF and CoBank warn fertilizer prices are structural, projecting $32 billion in farm losses for 2027

Fertilizer prices will remain above pre-crisis levels through at least 2027, driven by structural supply constraints that cannot be resolved quickly, according to a series of analyses from the American Farm Bureau Federation and CoBank. The reports, published between June and August 2026, describe an input cost environment that has shifted from cyclical to structural — a distinction with direct consequences for farm budgets and planting decisions.

AFBF’s survey of more than 5,700 farmers found that 70% of respondents were unable to afford all the fertilizer they needed for the 2026 crop year. CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division warned in August that phosphate production capacity is forecast to drop 13% from pre-crisis levels due to damaged infrastructure, prolonged outages and raw material shortages — particularly the sulfur supply crisis triggered by the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

North Dakota State University projects 2027 fertilizer price averages at $496 per metric ton for urea, $666 for DAP, $660 for MAP, $619 for ammonia and $361 for UAN. These estimates are lower than the post-conflict peaks of early 2026 yet remain well above the pre-war baseline. CoBank’s lead farm supply economist Jacqui Fatka wrote that “unlike the 2022 fertilizer shock, today’s disruption is rooted less in rerouted trade flows and more in damaged production capacity, raw material constraints and uncertain recovery timelines.”

AFBF projects that without federal assistance, farmers growing nine principal crops will lose $32 billion in 2027, compared with $31 billion in 2026. On a per-acre basis, every crop analyzed is projected to remain below breakeven. The findings reinforce the urgency of congressional action on the stalled Farm Bill, year-round E15 authorization and the $500 million FIELDS program aimed at expanding domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity.

Source: American Farm Bureau Federation